南华期货铁合金周报：铁合金回落后，下方受到成本支撑-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment declined last week, ferroalloys showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and fluctuating downward. The industrial side's hedging at high prices suppressed the price increase. Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side and may show a bottom - oscillating trend after the short - term correction [2]. - The production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally, and the production reduction trend has gradually flattened and turned upward, with production starting to gradually recover. However, the demand improvement is limited, and high inventory further suppresses demand. De - stocking may still need to be achieved through production cuts [63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment decline last week led to a fall - back in ferroalloys. Industrial hedging at high prices restricted price increases. Silicon - manganese inventory decreased by 2.5% week - on - week, but its warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 32.96%. Silicon - iron inventory decreased by 7.48% week - on - week [2]. - On the supply side, the decline in hot - metal production last week reduced the demand for ferroalloys. Although the profit of ferroalloys has recovered recently, the downstream demand is weak, and the driving force for production reduction is not strong, with production expected to fluctuate slightly around the current level. Silicon - iron production decreased by 0.40% and silicon - manganese production decreased by 0.23% week - on - week [2]. - On the demand side, the decline in hot - metal production reduced the demand for ferroalloys. The downstream five major steel products may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation state, also reducing the demand for ferroalloys [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound oscillation. - Price range: The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2603 is 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton, and that of the silicon - manganese main contract 2603 is 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton. - Basis strategy: Wait - and - see. - Calendar - spread strategy: Wait - and - see. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Wait - and - see [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Ferroalloy price range forecast: The price range of silicon - iron in the next month is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.8%. The price range of silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.18% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.5% [7]. - Ferroalloy hedging: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a 15% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Anti - involution expectations; accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation and controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects effectively from next year; the 15th Five - Year Plan; magnesium ingot production increased by 7.7% month - on - month in November; downstream steel profits gradually improved; silicon - manganese inventory decreased by 2.5% week - on - week; silicon - iron inventory decreased by 7.8% week - on - week [9][10]. - Negative information: Not clearly listed in a summarized form, but factors such as the decline in hot - metal production and high inventory of silicon - manganese are negative factors [2]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday, China will announce the GDP growth rate for 2025. - Next Thursday, the US will announce the weekly initial jobless claims [17]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [14]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar - spread Structure - Silicon - manganese warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 32.96% week - on - week. The silicon - manganese inventory base is at a five - year high, with great de - stocking pressure. The improvement in ferroalloy profits may lead to a continued increase in production, putting pressure on supply [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The marginal improvement of ferroalloy profits led to a weakening of the motivation for production cuts, and production began to increase slightly month - on - month [32]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicon - iron export profit and export volume, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [62]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - On the supply side, the production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally, and production has started to gradually recover. On the demand side, although hot - metal production may stop falling and steel production has increased month - on - month, the downstream consumption demand is difficult to rise sustainably in the off - season, and the improvement in ferroalloy demand is limited. High inventory further suppresses demand, and de - stocking may require production cuts [63]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted weekly production of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, as well as the relationship between production profit and production, and the relationship between hot - metal production and ferroalloy production, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [66][67][68]. 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted weekly demand for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in the five major steel products, as well as the relationship between hot - metal production, magnesium ingot production, steel enterprise profitability, and ferroalloy demand, and the relationship between ferroalloy export profit and export volume, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [70][71][74]. 3.5.4 Inventory - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted seasonal inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, including enterprise inventory, warehouse - receipt inventory, and total inventory, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [85][90][92].