南华期货LPG产业周报：地缘扰动频发，化工检修增加-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of overseas propane and crude oil. This week, the PG market was mainly influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuated with crude oil. With Iran being an important LPG supplier to China, the overall price trended strongly. After the US postponed military action against Iran on Friday, the risk premium was reversed [1][2]. - On the fundamentals, although the Iran issue has not had much substantial impact on PG, the overall shipping volume from the Middle East remains low, which will continue for some time and support import costs [2]. - In the domestic demand side, with the maintenance of PDH units this week, the marginal demand has weakened. Meanwhile, the profit calculated by FEI has returned to positive, and subsequent maintenance situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil market fluctuates repeatedly. International crude oil faces the pressure of oversupply in fundamentals and is continuously affected by geopolitical risks. After the US suspended military action against Iran on Friday, the short - term risk premium was reversed [1]. - Overseas propane market is in a volatile state. The shipping volume in the Middle East remains low, and the US is in a state of inventory reduction with increased exports this week, but the absolute inventory level is still high, and the demand is significantly weaker year - on - year. As of Friday, the FEI premium is $37.75, and the CP premium is $29 [1]. - The domestic fundamentals are stable. The arrival volume at ports this week is still low, port inventories continue to decline, and the commercial volume of refineries remains at a relatively low level. On the chemical demand side, PDH maintenance increased this week, and the operating rate declined [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The market is expected to be volatile. The price range of PG03 is between 3,800 - 4,400 yuan/ton [15]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - Basis Strategy: The basis is expected to narrow in a volatile manner. The spot price is rising due to tight supply, and the futures price may experience valuation repair [15]. - Calendar Spread Strategy: The spread is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high. The near - term is relatively strongly supported, but the long - term outlook is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the near - term [16]. - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: Narrow the domestic - foreign price spread and widen the PP/PG price ratio when the price is low [16]. - Recent Strategy Review - Hold the 3 - 4 reverse arbitrage position and partially take profits [17]. - Keep the long - PP and short - PG position on hold. Although PDH maintenance has increased recently, the PP price has risen significantly due to cost factors, and the short - term unilateral upward space is limited. The PG price fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to enter the market [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range of LPG is predicted to be between 3,800 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.27% and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 12.77% [18]. - LPG Hedging Strategy Table - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. For example, short PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises. For example, sell PG2603C4400 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 100 - 120 yuan [18][19]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy PG futures at a low price on the futures market to lock in procurement costs. For example, buy PG2603 and PG2603P3800 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3,800 - 3,900 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops. For example, sell put options with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 20 - 40 yuan [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative Information - PDH maintenance increased this week. Jineng's 900,000 - ton and Wanhua's 900,000 - ton units are planned to be maintained until the end of the month, Satellite's 450,000 - ton unit had a short - term shutdown this week, and Zhongjing's 1,000,000 - ton unit had a one - week short - term shutdown [19]. - The US suspended military action against Iran, and the situation in Iran has cooled down in the short term [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - January 19: China's Q4 GDP [24]. - January 20: China's LPR [24]. - January 22: US PCE index [24]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - Domestic Market - Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow: This week, the PG03 contract fluctuated upwards. The net position of the main profitable seats increased slightly; there was no significant change in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list; the net short position of the profitable seats increased slightly; the net long position of foreign investors and retail investors increased slightly [21]. - Technical Analysis: This week, PG03 generally fluctuated upwards, oscillating between 4,000 - 4,300 yuan/ton on the daily chart. On the hourly chart, attention should be paid to the support around 4,100 yuan/ton [21]. - Basis and Calendar Spread Structure: This week, the LPG term structure remained in a BACK structure, and the 3 - 4 calendar spread was - 242 yuan/ton [26]. - Overseas Market - Unilateral Trend: FEI M1 closed at $526/ton (+$11), with a premium of $37.75/ton; CP M1 closed at $530/ton (+$6), with a CP premium of $29/ton; MB M1 closed at $321/ton (-$11). Affected by geopolitical factors this week, FEI and CP prices mainly increased, while the US fundamentals were relatively weak, and the price declined [28]. - Calendar Spread Structure: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $23/ton; the CP M1 - M2 spread was $17.5/ton; the MB M1 - M2 spread was $1.3/ton. The recent increase in the near - month price has put pressure on the MB near - month contract [37]. - Regional Price Spread Tracking: The weak fundamentals in the US have widened the price spread between FEI and MB. The easing of the situation in Iran in the Middle East has led to a greater reversal of the CP risk premium, and the price spread between CP and FEI has narrowed [39]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Upstream Profit: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 762 yuan/ton (+85 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 280 yuan/ton (-89 yuan/ton). The profit of local refineries continued to shrink [43]. - Downstream Profit: The PDH profit based on FEI cost was +88 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit based on CP cost was - 218 yuan/ton. The profit calculated by FEI has returned to positive. The MTBE gas separation profit was - 69 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was - 34 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 265 yuan/ton. The profits fluctuated slightly [45]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit was in a volatile state [49]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - US Supply - Demand - EIA Weekly Supply - Demand: This week, production remained stable, demand was still relatively high, exports recovered, and inventories continued to decline, but the overall inventory level was still relatively high [56]. - KPLER Export Situation: In 2025, the US exported a total of 68,283 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. Among them, exports to China were 10,187 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. Weekly exports have recovered this week [61]. - Middle East Supply: In 2025, the Middle East exported a total of 48,463 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. Among them, exports to India were 21,171 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.29%; exports to China were 17,905 kt, a year - on - year increase of 25.21%. Weekly shipping volume in the Middle East has been low in recent weeks but has slightly improved [65]. - India Supply - Demand: From January to December, India's total LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23,229 kt, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. There is still expected to be an increase in 2026, but the growth rate is expected to be limited [70]. - South Korea Supply - Demand: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious, as most of it is used in the chemical industry. In 2025, South Korea imported a total of 8,434 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. Recently, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [81]. - Japan Supply - Demand: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is obvious. It is expected that imports will increase as the weather gets cooler. After restocking in August, imports decreased in September, and overall, imports in August and September were neutral. Imports increased again in October. Normally, from November to February of the next year, the average monthly import volume is around 1,000 kt. From January to December 2025, Japan imported a total of 10,105 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.58% [84]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - Domestic Supply - Demand Balance - Supply: With high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external sales volume is not high. According to shipping data, the import volume is not high [89]. - Demand: Based on profit and seasonal performance, chemical demand has decreased, while combustion demand has increased. Overall, the chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected [89]. - Inventory: The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port end [90]. - Domestic Supply: The operating rate of major refineries is 77.24% (+0.26%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 53.91% (-0.66%), and the utilization rate excluding large refineries is 49.77% (-0.74%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 51.87 tons (+0.06 tons), and the arrival volume is 53.9 tons (+1.1 tons). In terms of inventory, the refinery storage capacity utilization rate is 23.15% (-0.66%), and the port inventory is 202.78 tons (-10.42 tons) [93]. - Domestic Demand - PDH Demand: Jineng's 900,000 - ton and Wanhua's 900,000 - ton units are planned to be maintained until the end of the month, Satellite's 450,000 - ton unit had a short - term shutdown this week, and Zhongjing's 1,000,000 - ton unit had a one - week short - term shutdown [104]. - MTBE Demand: This week, Shandong Chengtai and Yuhuang Shengrong continued their maintenance, and Dongfang Hongye resumed production. The domestic - foreign price spread has widened [107]. - Alkylated Oil Demand: There were no changes in the units this week [114]. - Combustion Demand: No specific information provided other than related to the seasonal charts [116].