固定收益周度策略报告：总量政策若“缺席”，市场怎么走？-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term suppressing factors in the bond market have weakened, but the sentiment repair is limited. The bond market shows a pattern of "stable short - end and weak long - end". The "see - saw" effect of stocks, bonds, and commodities has eased, but the bond market sentiment is still constrained by policy and fundamental factors [2][7]. - The central bank is prioritizing structural monetary policy tools, and the window for aggregate easing is expected to be postponed. Recent economic data shows marginal improvement, weakening the urgency of aggregate easing [3][9]. - Historically, when aggregate policies are absent in the first quarter, there are usually increased fluctuations in capital prices, greater upward pressure on long - term interest rates, and a longer adjustment cycle. However, this year, due to the conservative market expectations for monetary easing and the central bank's rich liquidity management tools, the short - end may be more stable than in historical "absence years" [4][5][13]. - The market may continue to favor short - term bonds as the downward trend of fundamental high - frequency signals slows down, and the growth rate of medium - and long - term corporate loans has rebounded for the first time after 30 months of decline [5][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Performance and Influencing Factors - This week, the bond market continued the pattern of "stable short - end and weak long - end". The "see - saw" effect of stocks, bonds, and commodities has eased, but the bond market sentiment has not been significantly repaired due to the postponement of aggregate policy easing and concerns about the macro - fundamentals [2][7]. - The central bank highlighted the implementation and application of structural monetary policy tools at the press conference, and the aggregate easing window is expected to be postponed. Recent economic data, such as December's PMI, inflation, export, and credit data, have shown marginal improvement, weakening the urgency of aggregate easing [3][9]. Historical Analysis of Aggregate Policy Absence in Q1 - From 2019 to 2025, the first quarter is usually an active period for the implementation of aggregate monetary policies. Years without aggregate policy support in Q1 include 2021, 2025, and most of 2023. - In terms of capital price performance, in years with aggregate policy implementation in Q1, the average maximum upward amplitude of the 5 - day MA of DR001 was about 95BP. In contrast, in years without aggregate policy support, this amplitude reached an average of 147BP, with significantly increased fluctuations [4][13][16]. - Regarding long - term interest rates, in years with aggregate policy support in Q1, the average maximum upward amplitude of the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate was about 15BP, and the upward cycle lasted about 21 days on average. In policy - absent years, the average maximum upward amplitude increased to 20BP, and the adjustment time extended to about 30 days [4][17][19]. Current Market Situation: Similarities and Differences - Similarity: When aggregate policies are absent in Q1, the upward pressure on long - term interest rates tends to increase, as bond supply usually increases at the beginning of the year, and pro - growth policies are successively introduced, which together with policy constraints put pressure on interest rates [20]. - Difference: This year, the market's expectation of broad - money policy is not strong, and with the support of the central bank's rich liquidity injection tools, the stability of capital prices in Q1 is expected to be enhanced compared with previous years, so the short - end may perform differently from historical "absence years" [20][23]. Market Strategy - The downward trend of fundamental high - frequency signals continues to slow down, and the growth rate of medium - and long - term corporate loans has rebounded for the first time after 30 months of decline. Although there are base - effect disturbances, the sustainability of this rebound should not be underestimated. The market shows signs of a phased rebound but may continue to favor short - term bonds as fundamental risks remain [5][29]. Weekly Market Review (January 11 - 17, 2026) - Funds: The net reverse - repurchase investment this week was 8128 billion yuan, and 6 - month repurchase operations had a net investment of 3000 billion yuan. The capital market tightened marginally, with the operating centers of DR001, DR007, and DR014 rising by 10bp, 6bp, and 8bp to 1.36%, 1.51%, and 1.54% respectively compared with last week [30][31]. - Bonds: Most Treasury bond yields declined this week, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield falling 5bp to 1.24% and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling 4bp to 1.84%. The 10 - 1 - year term spread widened by 1bp to 60bp. The bond market sentiment improved [32]. - Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators: Among the ten interest rate synchronous indicators, 6 sent "positive" signals this week. Compared with last week, the growth rate of medium - and long - term corporate loan balances sent a "negative" signal, while the copper - gold ratio sent a "positive" signal [41].