Guoxin Securities·2026-01-18 14:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2][5][11] Core Views - The upcoming Q4 2025 financial report is expected to show revenue under pressure due to the reduction of national subsidies, with a projected revenue of CNY 348.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 0.5% [4][6] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is anticipated to decline by 3 percentage points to 0.2% in Q4 2025, primarily due to the impact of subsidy reductions and an increase in the proportion of supermarket sales [4][7] - Revenue growth for JD Retail is expected to decrease by 3%, with significant declines in the sales of electronic products and home appliances, while the daily necessities category is projected to maintain double-digit growth [4][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to CNY 1,305.6 billion, CNY 1,396.9 billion, and CNY 1,494.3 billion, reflecting adjustments of -2.2%, -2.5%, and -4.1% respectively [5][11] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are CNY 26.5 billion, CNY 29.6 billion, and CNY 33.3 billion, with adjustments of -11.9%, -28.6%, and -42.0% respectively [5][11] Operational Insights - The overall GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) for Q4 is expected to show low single-digit negative growth, influenced by the reduction of national subsidies and high base effects [4][6] - Active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce remain strong, although the decline in high-ticket items due to subsidy reductions is expected to impact average transaction prices and GMV growth [4][6]