华联期货鸡蛋周报：市场交投氛围好转，现货回暖-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg spot price continued to rebound due to the Spring Festival stocking. The average price in the main production areas was 3.36 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from last week. Short - term price is supported by production cost and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the inventory is being digested [12][23]. - In December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in January 2026 will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. Short - term egg prices are still under pressure, while medium - term supply - demand is expected to improve [12][36]. - The egg market shows a significant supply - demand imbalance. The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, and the market is in a state of over - capacity. However, as the inventory decreases and the Spring Festival demand starts, the supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance. The egg price has fundamental support, but the upward space is restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption [13]. - The medium - term egg supply pressure has not been alleviated. The main contract is for the post - festival period, continuing to fluctuate widely in the range. The pressure level is around 3100 - 3150. For options, investors can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint and Strategy - Fundamental Viewpoint: The spot price rebounds, the supply - demand situation shows short - term pressure and medium - term improvement, and the market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance with potential for improvement. The strategy is to expect the main contract to fluctuate widely and consider buying call options of far - month contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The egg industry chain includes upstream (feed, breeding, animal protection), mid - stream (egg production and sales, and elimination of laying hens), and downstream (sales to various channels such as supermarkets, restaurants, and food processing plants) [17]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The national egg spot price continued to rebound due to the Spring Festival stocking. The average price in the main production areas was 3.36 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from last week. The price is supported by cost and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the inventory is being digested [23]. 3.4 Supply Side - Laying - hen Inventory: In December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in January 2026 will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level in the past five years [12][36]. - Chick Rearing and Replenishment: In December, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chick seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 37.25 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.39%. Although the sales volume increased slightly, most small and medium - sized farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was still low. The egg - to - chick utilization rate was generally low, and the chick price is expected to be stable [42]. - Eliminated Hen Price: In January, the supply of eliminated hens is expected to be sufficient, and the demand is expected to improve due to the Spring Festival stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly, with an average monthly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [46]. - Eliminated Hen Sales: This week, the total sales volume of eliminated hens was 658,500, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The price increase led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the overall sales volume decreased slightly [49]. 3.5 Demand Side - Sales in Main Consumption Areas: The egg demand shows seasonal characteristics. The price generally reaches the lowest in April, the highest in September, and then declines after the peak season [71]. - Substitute Prices: Although not elaborated in detail, substitute prices are factors restricting the upward space of egg prices [13]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - Feed Price: The egg cost is mainly affected by corn and soybean meal prices. In 2026, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the international purchase of soybean meal may increase, with their average prices likely to decline slightly. Although the feed cost is expected to fall by 1% - 2%, the overall cost of the industry is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin [80]. - Laying - hen Breeding Profit: This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.54 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 yuan/jin (0.57% increase). The profit was - 0.18 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.24 yuan/jin (57.14% increase). The cost per hen was 133.57 yuan/hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 yuan/hen (0.35% increase), and the breeding profit was 4.70 yuan/hen, a month - on - month increase of 9.54 yuan/hen (197.11% increase) [88].