铜周报：消息利空回调，中长向上趋势难改-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite short - term news - induced pullbacks, the medium - to long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai copper 2603 being 94,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - The vulnerability of the copper mine end is prominent, with frequent production disruptions at major overseas mines. From 2025 - 2026, global copper mine production growth is expected to be limited. Although domestic refined copper production increased in December 2025, future production may decline due to reduced processing fees. - Recent domestic downstream copper consumption has weakened, and Nvidia's revision of copper demand data for data centers may lower market expectations for future copper demand. However, the impact on overall copper demand is relatively limited. New energy, power grids, photovoltaic, and wind power are expected to maintain high - speed growth and remain the main drivers of new copper demand. In the context of limited supply growth, the supply - demand balance of copper is likely to tighten in the short term, and the long - term upward price trend is unlikely to change [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - Strategy: Buy on dips in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai copper 2603 being 94,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Macro: The US imposed a 25% tariff on some semiconductors starting from January 15, 2026, with exemptions for data centers and the public sector. Copper import tariffs only apply to semi - finished products, and refined copper is not restricted. The People's Bank of China lowered the re - lending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19. China will cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1, and the tax rebate rate for battery products will be phased out [9]. - Supply: The vulnerability of the copper mine end is prominent, with frequent production disruptions at major overseas mines. The ICSG predicts that the global copper mine production growth rate may drop to 0.9% in 2025. From 2025 - 2026, copper mine production growth is expected to be restricted. In December 2025, domestic refined copper production increased by 76,000 tons month - on - month. Overseas smelting capacity expansion is slow due to energy prices [9]. - Demand: Domestic downstream copper consumption has weakened recently, with an increase in production cuts and suspensions. Nvidia's revision of copper demand data for data centers may lower market expectations for future copper demand, but the impact on overall copper demand is relatively limited. New energy, power grids, photovoltaic, and wind power are expected to maintain high - speed growth and remain the main drivers of new copper demand [9]. - Inventory: Last week, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, while domestic social and exchange inventories increased rapidly. The off - season and significant price increases have affected downstream demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures, Spot, and Premiums: Relevant data on domestic futures and spot prices and Shanghai flat - water copper premiums are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [13]. - LME Copper Price and Shanghai - London Ratio: Relevant data on LME copper price trends and the Shanghai - London ratio are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [15]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory - Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Large - scale Copper Mine Discoveries: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated significantly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year, and new large - scale copper mines are often located in areas with poor geological conditions or political instability, with long development cycles [24]. - Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution: In 2024, the top three countries in global copper mine production were Chile (23%), Congo (DRC) (15%), and Peru (11%); the top three countries in global refined copper production were China (45%), Congo (DRC) (9%), and Chile (7%) [27][29]. - Copper Concentrate Processing Fees TC and Global Copper Mine Production: As of January 16, 2026, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - 46.40 US dollars/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was 3498 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 15.305 million tons from January to October, and the annual production in 2024 was 22.388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [33]. - Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory: In November 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In the third week of 2026, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 547,000 tons [40]. - Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production: In October 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2419 million tons, with a consumption of 2.2433 million tons, a supply shortage of 1400 tons. From January to October 2025, the global refined copper production was 22.6095 million tons, with a consumption of 22.5734 million tons, a supply surplus of 36,100 tons. In October 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%; from January to October, the cumulative production was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [44]. - Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume: In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 304,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 3.1031 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 278,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 681,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% [46]. - Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative imports of recycled copper raw materials (copper scrap and waste) were 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. As of January 16, 2026, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 5505 yuan/ton, higher than the reasonable price difference of 1500 yuan/ton [50][51]. - International Visible Inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 141,600 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market rose to 542,900 tons, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [58][59]. - Domestic Inventory: Since the end of the year, domestic social and SHFE copper inventories have increased rapidly. As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory was 327,500 tons, and the SHFE inventory reached a new high since May last year [63][64]. 3.4 Primary Processing and End - user Markets - Primary Processing Market: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the cumulative imports were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. From January to November 2025, the total export of unwrought copper was 1.4971 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.10% [70][75]. - End - user Market - Power: From January to November 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 850 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the investment in power grid projects was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [79]. - End - user Market - Real Estate: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 6.0432 trillion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [85]. - End - user Market - Automobile: From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4% respectively. From January to November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.780 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. It is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 1.85 million in 2026, and although the copper consumption growth rate will drop to about 15%, the absolute increase in copper consumption will still be considerable [90][95]. - End - user Market - Home Appliances: In November 2025, the national air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to November 2025, the export volume of Chinese household appliances was 4.082801 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the cumulative export of air - conditioners from January to November was 55.13 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [99]. - End - user Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power: From January to November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. It is expected that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in 2026 will be between 235 - 270GW, and the new installed capacity of wind power in 2025 will be 78 - 80GW. The single - consumption of copper in photovoltaic and wind power is gradually decreasing. It is expected that the copper consumption of photovoltaic and wind power installations in China will decrease by 2% in 2025 and by more than 12% in 2026 [103][107]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast: Since 2020, the global copper demand structure has changed significantly. It is expected that the proportion of green copper demand (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed that of construction demand in 2025. From 2026 - 2028, the global refined copper supply will be 27.97 million tons, 28.94 million tons, and 28.84 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.4%; the global refined copper demand will be 28.13 million tons, 28.80 million tons, and 29.45 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.3%. There will be continuous supply shortages of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons from 2026 - 2028 [110][111]. - Industrial Chain Structure: No specific content is provided in the report.