碳酸锂周报：回归基本面定价逻辑-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2026.1.9 - 2026.1.16), the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with the benchmark spot price reaching 156,250 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a 12.33% increase from January 9, 2026. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 1.94% and a closing price of 146,200 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. Although a few lithium salt plants scheduled maintenance, the actual impact on production was limited, and most enterprises maintained stable production. The overall industry operating rate remained high, and new production capacity contributed to the growth [11]. - The downstream demand scheduling decreased. The demand expectation in the energy storage field remained strong, but the power battery was in a seasonal off - peak season, and some material plants' maintenance suppressed the current spot procurement demand. Downstream material plants were cautious about the current high - price spot and mainly purchased for rigid demand [11]. - This week, the industry cost remained stable, and the industry profit turned from loss to profit. The overall industry inventory level was low, and the inventory might continue to accumulate this week. Lithium salt plants were more willing to sell scattered orders, the inventory in the trader link increased, and the downstream inventory remained low or decreased [11]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The positive policy expectation has not been falsified, and the supply side still has uncertainties, which support the price. However, the weak spot - market transactions and the strengthened exchange supervision measures also resist the price increase. The current upward momentum comes from the demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the wide - range fluctuations in the market caused by changes in capital sentiment due to exchange risk control [11]. - The unilateral strategy considers range - bound operations for LC2605, with the contract reference range at (130,000, 170,000); or buy put options [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Views and Hot News - Hot News - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - On January 4, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" proposed to promote the integrated construction of heavy non - ferrous metal mining and beneficiation, and future lithium salt supply growth may be limited by environmental protection and solid - waste treatment capacity. The resumption process of Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mining Area has raised concerns again [8]. - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that for the "new three" industries such as new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key lies in standardizing the order and innovation - leading [8]. - On December 25, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would reduce production and conduct maintenance on some production lines from December 28, 2025, for about one month, reducing the production of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 - 20,000 tons [8]. - On December 24, it was reported that the lithium - mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. was expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [8]. - The Jiangxi Yichun Tendering Network released the first environmental - impact assessment information for the lithium - mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. [8] - Week - ly View - Market Review: The spot price of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures main contract also increased. The current main - month contract had a position of about 416,100 lots [11]. - Supply: Production increased slightly, with high operating rates and new - capacity contributions. Geopolitical factors had long - term impacts, but a South American mine planned to resume partial production by the end of January [11]. - Demand: Downstream demand scheduling decreased, but the energy - storage demand was strong. The "rush - to - export" expectation due to the tax - rebate policy was optimistic for the first - quarter demand. The power - battery off - peak season and material - plant maintenance suppressed procurement [11]. - Cost, Profit, and Inventory: The cost remained stable, and the profit turned from loss to profit. The overall inventory was low, and it might continue to accumulate [11]. - Outlook: Supply and demand were both strong. Policy expectations and supply uncertainties supported the price, while weak transactions and exchange supervision resisted the increase. The upward momentum came from demand expectations, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [11]. - Strategy: Consider range - bound operations for LC2605 or buy put options [11] 2. Industry Pattern - The lithium industry chain includes upstream raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, recycled lithium extraction), lithium - salt products (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc.), materials (ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc.), lithium - ion batteries, and terminal consumption (new - energy vehicles, 3C digital, energy storage, etc.) [15][16] 3. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium - carbonate contract was 146,200 yuan/ton, a 1.94% increase from the previous period. The trading volume increased by 26.00% to 591,523 lots, and the position decreased by 18.54% to 416,133 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts increased by 8.27% to 27,458 lots [22]. - Spot Market - The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. As of January 16, 2026, the benchmark spot price was 156,250 yuan/ton, a 12.33% increase from January 9, 2026 [11] 4. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,844 tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous period. The market inventory decreased by 2.42% to 64,356 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 0.36% to 18,030 tons, and the registered warehouse - receipt volume increased by 8.27% to 27,458 tons [33] 5. Cost and Profit - The cost of lithium carbonate was 153,218 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase from the previous period. The profit was 4,732 yuan/ton, a 137.24% increase from the previous loss of 12,705.2 yuan/ton [40] 6. Supply - Production Capacity, Output, and Imports/Exports - The production of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. The overall industry operating rate remained high, and new production capacity contributed to the growth [11]. - Multiple companies have planned new production - capacity projects, with a total planned new capacity of 211,000 tons [46]. - Import Situation - The report shows import - related charts of lithium carbonate, including monthly import season charts, annual cumulative import, and import from different countries [48][49] - Production from Different Raw Materials - The report presents monthly production season charts of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycled materials [58][60] - Spodumene Import - The report shows monthly import season charts of spodumene from different regions such as Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as import volume and cumulative import [69][72] 7. Demand - Overall Demand - The downstream demand scheduling decreased. The energy - storage demand was strong, but the power - battery off - peak season and material - plant maintenance suppressed procurement [11]. - The report shows charts related to the overall demand, such as monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new - energy vehicles, retail penetration rate of new - energy vehicles, and monthly production of power batteries [82][84]. - Power Batteries - The report shows charts related to power - battery production, installation, export, energy storage, and the proportion of different vehicle - type power - battery installations [88]. - Output of Each Material - The report shows the output of materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate [98][100] 8. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from December 2024 to a certain period in 2025, including total supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, import and export volume, production from different raw materials, output of each material, and inventory [107]