黄金周报：短线或有波动，但中线看多黄金逻辑不变-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Short-term gold prices may fluctuate, but the medium-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. In 2026, there is a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates twice, which is favorable for gold. Long - term factors such as the continued decline of the global US dollar reserve ratio, the increase in US fiscal deficit, and the expected decline in real interest rates also support gold. It is expected that gold will remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. The report suggests holding gold long - term positions and setting stop - profits in the short - term, and considering buying call options [1][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy Fundamental View - In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively. - Inflation: CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut. - Interest rates: The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. - Supply and demand: In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. - US economy: In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [6] Strategy View and Outlook - Outlook: The main gold futures contract was volatile at a high level last Friday. Due to the rapid changes in geopolitical conflicts, short - term fluctuations may occur, but the medium - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. The lawsuit against the Fed chairman reflects US political turmoil and a stronger expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026, which is favorable for gold. Continue to pay attention to non - farm payroll data and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. From the December Fed meeting, the probability of two interest rate cuts in 2026 has increased, which is a dovish interest rate cut and favorable for gold. The market expects the new Fed chairman to be dovish, so interest rate cuts in 2026 are likely to meet expectations. In the long - term, the global US dollar reserve ratio continued to decline in the second quarter, the US fiscal deficit continued to increase, and de - dollarization is ongoing, which is favorable for gold's monetary attribute. In terms of financial attributes, it is expected that the real interest rate will continue to decline in 2026, which is also a positive factor for gold in the medium - term. For the commodity attribute, due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold demand may be greatly affected, and gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. It is necessary to pay attention to whether central bank gold purchases and investment demand can make up for the decline in jewelry demand. In summary, the long - term positive factors for gold still exist, so gold is expected to remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. - Operation suggestions: Hold gold long - term positions and set stop - profits in the short - term. Consider buying call options [10] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Last week, gold prices fluctuated upwards. In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively [22][28] 3. Inflation - CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut [32] 4. Interest Rates - The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. In November, inflation dropped significantly, and the real interest rate increased [37][41] 5. US Economy - In the third quarter, the US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year, up from 2.08% in the second quarter. In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, continuing to decline by 0.3%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, showing continuous strength. In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [44][48] 6. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - When the gold supply and demand are in a tight balance, it helps the gold price rise, but when in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. In the third quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases were 219.85 tons; in the second quarter, they were 172.02 tons; in the first quarter, they were 248.57 tons. Since November 2022, the Chinese central bank has continuously purchased gold. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons; since 2024, it has purchased 44.17 tons. In 2025, the Chinese central bank purchased 26.74 tons. In terms of ETF demand, in 2023, the gold holding decreased by 113.69 tons; in 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons; in 2025, it increased by 294.73 tons; in 2026, it decreased by 7.2 tons [54][57][60] 7. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned 8. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Only mentioned the reasonable range of the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets, no specific data 9. Gold Basis - Not provided in the given content 10. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Only relevant charts are mentioned, no specific data