Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are weakly stable, resulting in weak cost - side drivers. Domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, while international methanol operating rates have dropped to a low level, reducing import pressure and supply pressure. Current demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, olefin profits are poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry load has decreased, putting pressure on demand. Port inventories remain high, the basis is weak, and futures prices are under pressure [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - Inventory: This week, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventories are expected to be 44.41 tons, showing a slight week - on - week decline. Forecasted foreign vessel arrivals are expected to increase week - on - week. Recent port spot sales are average, and import apparent demand may be weak. Overall, port methanol inventories are expected to rise next week [11]. - Supply: This week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0301 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 90.87%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan for methanol import samples is 291,500 tons, including 226,000 tons of visible and 65,500 tons of non - visible imports, and domestic trade is estimated to be around 15,000 - 20,000 tons [11]. - Demand: This week, MTO plants are operating stably with no significant change plans, and the weekly average operating rate has decreased. In the traditional demand sector, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether have increased, while the operating rate of chlorides has decreased [11]. - Industrial chain profit: Import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 36 yuan/ton. The profit from coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable in the loss, currently at - 238 yuan/ton. Downstream profits are in a large loss, and the profit from MTO in East China remains in a loss, currently at - 1,094 yuan/ton [11]. - Coal price: On the supply side, it is constrained by the reduction of production quotas in Indonesia, the delay in RKAB approval, and logistics issues. On the demand side, it continues to be weak due to the price - cutting by domestic power plants, high inventory levels, and conservative procurement in non - power industries. Coal prices are weakly stable [11] [12]. Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoint: Coal prices are weakly stable, cost - side drivers are weak; domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, international methanol operating rates have dropped to a low level, import pressure has decreased, and supply pressure has reduced; current demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, olefin profits are poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry load has decreased, putting pressure on demand. Port inventories remain high, the basis is weak, and futures prices are under pressure [12]. - Unilateral and options: Operate bearishly within the range, with a reference range of [2,150, 2,350] [12]. MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term) - Strategy: Short the MA605 contract [15]. - Price and trend: It is in a rebound trend. As of January 15, the price of MA605 is 2,273 [15]. - Logic: Port inventories are at a relatively high level, downstream profits are poor, and demand is under pressure [15]. - Operation suggestion: Operate bearishly when the price rises [15]. PP - 3MA Strategy - Strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread [16]. - Price and trend: It is in a volatile trend. As of January 15, for the May contract, the current spread of PP - 3MA is - 227 [16]. - Logic: In 2026, PP will still be in the peak production period, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol; new downstream production capacity of methanol is being put into operation on a large scale, and methanol demand is resilient [16]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see for now or short when the price rises [16]. Futures and Spot Prices - Spot price: As of January 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,240 yuan/ton [21]. - Basis: As of January 15, the basis relative to the May contract is currently - 33 yuan/ton [21]. Supply - side - Capacity utilization and production: Last week (January 9 - 15, 2026), China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,990 tons; the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34% [82]. - International operating rate and imports: As of January 14, 2026, China's methanol sample arrivals during the period (January 8 - 14, 2026) were 240,400 tons; among them, foreign vessels accounted for 221,100 tons (96,100 tons of visible and 125,000 tons of non - visible, including 41,100 tons of visible in Jiangsu); domestic trade vessels supplemented 19,300 tons, including 2,000 tons in Jiangsu, 10,300 tons in Guangdong, and 7,000 tons in Xiamen [90]. - New production capacity in 2025: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a production capacity increase of about 7.3%, and most of the plants are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [93]. - New production capacity in 2026: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a production capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. Demand - side - Apparent consumption of methanol: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [100]. - Methanol - to - olefin operating rate and production: The MTO operating rate is 89.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing has stopped production, and some enterprises are still operating at reduced loads, and the industry operating rate continues to decline passively [104]. - Traditional downstream operating rate: The traditional downstream operating rate is low [109]. - Downstream procurement volume: As of January 14, 2026, the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.13% [122]. - New downstream production capacity: The new downstream production capacity is high, corresponding to a methanol consumption of 10.52 million tons, and methanol demand remains resilient [125]. Inventory - Enterprise inventory: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.71% [131]. - Port inventory: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples is 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63%. The significant reduction in port methanol inventory is mainly due to the small total unloading volume. During the period, the visible foreign vessel unloading was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was counted as 125,000 tons [134].
甲醇周报：基差偏弱，期货价格承压运行-20260118
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2026-01-18 14:33