华联期货双焦周报：强预期弱现实，双焦宽幅震荡-20260118

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The supply side of coal mines has little change for the time being, with the coal mine operating rate continuing to rise slightly last week; on the demand side, the steel mill's hot metal production has slightly decreased, but there are still expectations for winter storage replenishment; the market's expectation for the fifth round of price cuts has cooled down, and there are expectations for coal production cuts. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate widely [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - Supply: On January 16, 2026, the operating rate of coking coal mines in 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week-on-week increase; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 sample mines was 1.9779 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of all-sample independent coking plants was 72.69%, a week-on-week decrease; the daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons. In terms of steel mills' coke production, the capacity utilization rate this week was 85.38%, and the daily output was 467,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease [7]. - Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 78.84%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%. The average profit per ton of coke was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 9.5483 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.989 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.022 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 11.3285 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase. The coke inventory at ports was 1.887 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.5033 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [7]. - View: In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate widely [7]. - Strategy: Participate in the short-term long side of the coking coal and coke 2605 contracts. The support level for coking coal 2605 is around 1,050 - 1,060 yuan/ton, and the support level for coke 2605 is around 1,620 - 1,630 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy regulation, capacity constraints, and the customs clearance volume of imported coal in the later stage [7]. 3.2 Industrial Chain - No specific content provided for analysis 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - No specific content provided for analysis 3.4 Inventory - Coking Coal Inventory (Mines, Ports): As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 9.5483 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.989 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease [28]. - Coking Coal Inventory (Coking and Steel Enterprises): As of January 16, 2026, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.022 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 11.3285 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [33]. - Coke Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the coke inventory at ports was 1.887 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.5033 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [38]. 3.5 Supply - Coking Coal Import and Export: From January to November, the cumulative import of coking coal was 10.48559 million tons, and the export was 112,960 tons [44]. - Coal Mine Output: On January 16, 2026, the operating rate of coking coal mines in 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week-on-week increase; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 sample mines was 1.9779 million tons [48]. - Coking Output: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of all-sample independent coking plants was 72.69%, a week-on-week decrease; the daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons [53]. - Steel Mill Coke Output: As of January 16, 2026, in terms of steel mills' coke production, the capacity utilization rate this week was 85.38%, and the daily output was 467,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease [58]. 3.6 Demand - Hot Metal and Operating Rate: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 78.84%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease [66]. - Steel Mill and Coke Profit per Ton: As of January 16, 2026, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 39.83%. The average profit per ton of coke was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [72].