金银周报-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has reached a new starting point for an uptrend. It is recommended to increase the allocation of gold, focusing on its enhanced monetary attribute. Strategies such as unilateral long - entry and buying call options for gold are suggested, and volatility may rise. [3] - Due to increased risk - control pressure on silver exchanges recently, along with a slowdown in the US inventory flow and domestic speculative sentiment, which eases the spot problem, a profit - taking strategy for silver long positions is recommended. In particular, going long on the gold - silver ratio is recommended as it has good cost - effectiveness and protective value. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Price Changes: This week, London gold rose by 2.61%, and London silver rose by 16.2%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 57 in the previous week to 50. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.91%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.24% (2 - year 3.59%), and the US dollar index was 99.37. [3] - Futures and ETF Data: For example, the closing price of SHFE silver 2602 was 22,555 with a weekly increase of 20.25%, and the closing price of SHFE gold 2602 was 1,032.32 with a weekly increase of 2.57%. The non - commercial net long positions of Comex gold futures and options increased by 16,720, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 21.11 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of Comex silver futures and options increased by 28,532, while the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 235.42 tons. [4] 3.2 Price Difference Analysis - Overseas Price Difference: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 rose to - 2.064 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 11.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.189 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.76 dollars per ounce. [9][15] - Domestic Price Difference: The gold futures - spot price difference this week was - 1.23 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver futures - spot price difference was 158 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.84 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range, and the silver monthly spread was 0 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [21][24][29][33] 3.3 Delivery Cost Analysis - The total cost of the long - short cross - month positive arbitrage delivery of buying TD and selling SHFE gold was 26.73 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract was 7.53 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying TD and selling SHFE silver was 561.79 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract was - 168.44 yuan per kilogram. [35][36][37][38] 3.4 Deferred Fee Direction This week, the gold deferred fee at the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly paid from long to short, indicating stronger delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from short to long, indicating stronger receiving power. [39] 3.5 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 5.47 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 329 tons to 13,348 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 28.4%. Gold futures inventory increased by 2.4 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 6.58 tons to 626 tons. [41][43][47] 3.6 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long positions of silver also decreased slightly. [49] 3.7 ETF Holdings This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 21.11 tons, and domestic gold ETFs increased by 1.9 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 235 tons. [52][55] 3.8 Core Drivers of Gold - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has recovered this week, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline. [64]