可选消费W03周度趋势解析：美联储独立性和未来货币政策稳定性的担忧和要求设置信用卡利率上限，本周海外消费集体下挫-20260118

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, and Anta Sports, among others [1]. Core Insights - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and future monetary policy stability have led to a collective decline in overseas consumer sectors [4][11]. - The snack sector has shown resilience, outperforming the MSCI China index, while other sectors such as luxury goods and overseas sportswear have faced significant declines [4][11]. - The report highlights that most sectors are currently undervalued compared to their historical averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [9][15]. Sector Performance Summary - Snack Sector: Increased by 1.7%, with Wei Long's revenue guidance for 2026 projected to grow over 15% due to innovative products and channel expansion [6][14]. - Jewelry Sector: Rose by 1.6%, driven by Chow Tai Fook's strong operational performance expectations for FY26Q3 [6][14]. - Overseas Cosmetics: Gained 1.1%, with E.L.F Beauty's sales growth exceeding previous guidance [6][14]. - Domestic Sportswear: Increased by 1.5%, with Li Ning's revenue meeting expectations and a positive outlook for net profit margins [8][14]. - Pet Sector: Grew by 0.3%, with strong annual growth despite a slight decline in December [8][14]. - Gambling Sector: Slight decline of 0.1%, with Galaxy Entertainment showing resilience as a preferred investment choice [8][14]. - Domestic Cosmetics: Decreased by 0.3%, with expectations for recovery in 2026 [8][14]. - Retail Sector: Fell by 1.5%, with Target's positive leadership changes noted [8][14]. - Luxury Goods: Declined by 2.9%, impacted by market concerns over credit risks following Saks Global's bankruptcy [8][14]. - Overseas Sportswear: Experienced a significant drop of 4.0%, with major brands like Nike and Adidas facing declines [8][14]. - Credit Card Sector: Decreased by 5.1%, influenced by proposed caps on credit card interest rates [8][14]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the expected PE ratios for various sectors in 2025 are below their historical averages, suggesting potential undervaluation: - Overseas Sportswear: 30.4x (57% of historical average) - Domestic Sportswear: 13.5x (71% of historical average) - Jewelry: 22.8x (43% of historical average) - Luxury Goods: 27.4x (49% of historical average) - Gambling: 16.2x (26% of historical average) - Overseas Cosmetics: 41.0x (61% of historical average) - Domestic Cosmetics: 27.3x (51% of historical average) - Pet Sector: 36.9x (50% of historical average) - Snack Sector: 29.8x (72% of historical average) - Retail: 29.9x (54% of historical average) - US Hotels: 34.8x (21% of historical average) - Credit Cards: 28.3x (54% of historical average) [9][15].