纯碱玻璃周报：纯碱供应回升，玻璃去库提振价格-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Soda Ash - Last week, soda ash plants operated stably, production continued to rise, demand remained weak and stable, and manufacturers' inventories continued to accumulate. With sufficient soda ash production capacity, supply is expected to increase after plant overhauls end, while terminal demand remains weak, limiting price rebound space. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1150 - 1280 [8]. 2.2 Glass - Last week, there was no glass production line water - release or ignition, and a previously ignited production line started producing glass, with a slight increase in daily melting volume. Market production and sales were fair, and enterprise inventories continued to decline. Some glass production lines have cold - repair plans. After supply tightens, market production and sales have improved, and high - level inventories have decreased to relieve pressure, but they are still at a high level compared to the same period. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1070 - 1180 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, including 837,000 tons of light soda ash and 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with 1.4311 million tons in the same period last year, it increased by 14,390 tons, a rise of 10.06%. Enterprises mainly delivered previous orders, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - Supply: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons, a rise of 2.88%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. Most enterprise equipment operated stably, with few overhaul expectations, and combined with the increase in new production capacity, supply remained high [8]. - Demand: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points. Some enterprises delivered orders during the week, overall production and sales were basically balanced, inventory increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate increased [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - Inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period [11]. - Supply: From January 9 - 15, 2026, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28% [11]. - Profit: From January 9 - 15, 2026, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [11]. - Demand: As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can be maintained for more than 20 days; orders in the north and central regions have declined [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure 3.2.1 Soda Ash Industrial Chain - Upstream: Natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, ammonium chloride - Mid - stream: Soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash) - Downstream: Agricultural fertilizers, glass, daily detergents [14] 3.2.2 Flat Glass Industrial Chain - Upstream: Auxiliary materials (clarifiers, colorants), quartz sand, limestone, soda ash; fuels include coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), petroleum coke (16%) - Mid - stream: Float glass, other (such as calendering method), tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, coated glass - Downstream: Real estate (75%), automobile (18%), electronic appliances (7%) [16] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market 3.3.1 Glass - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1103, and the closing price of the North China basis was - 83 yuan/ton. The FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 106 yuan/ton [23][33]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1192, and the closing price of the North China basis was 58 yuan/ton. The SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 67 yuan/ton [28][33]. 3.4 Inventory 3.4.1 Glass - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Inventories in North China decreased by 10.27% week - on - week, in East China by 2.07%, in South China by 3.80%, and in Central China by 10.43% [37][43][45]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, including 837,000 tons of light soda ash and 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with 1.4311 million tons in the same period last year, it increased by 14,390 tons, a rise of 10.06%. Enterprises mainly delivered previous orders, and inventory increased slightly [50]. 3.5 Supply Side 3.5.1 Glass - From January 9 - 15, 2026, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel increased by 22 yuan/ton week - on - week, that using coal - made gas increased by 4.82 yuan/ton, and that using petroleum coke increased by 9.71 yuan/ton [56][58]. 3.5.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons, a rise of 2.88%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66.46%; the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 108% [65][66]. 3.6 Demand Side 3.6.1 Glass - As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can be maintained for more than 20 days; orders in the north and central regions have declined [71]. 3.6.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points. Some enterprises delivered orders during the week, overall production and sales were basically balanced, inventory increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate increased [84].