股指周报：大盘短期或宽幅震荡，但中期股指上涨逻辑不变-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The short - term market may experience wide - range fluctuations, but the medium - term upward logic of stock index remains unchanged. After a sharp rise, the short - term market may have large - scale fluctuations. Heavy - position profit - takers are advised to reduce positions on last Tuesday and Wednesday, then cover positions on dips or conduct intraday short - term trading. The spring market long - position window has opened, and the market will maintain an oscillating upward pattern. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged under the continuous increase of margin trading funds and the stabilization of the third - quarter report performance [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - Fundamental View: Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The performance of the four major indexes was different, with small and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap indexes falling. The growth and cyclical style indexes continued to rise, while the financial, consumer, and stable style indexes declined. In the Shenwan industry, TMT and cyclical sectors such as computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and media led the rise, while sectors such as military industry, real estate, agriculture, and coal led the decline. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover. The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and recover in the third quarter [7][10]. - Strategy View and Outlook: The short - term market may experience wide - range fluctuations, but the medium - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended that heavy - position profit - takers reduce positions and then cover positions on dips or conduct intraday short - term trading. The spring market long - position window has opened, and the market will maintain an oscillating upward pattern. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. In operation, long - term mid - line positions can be held, and short - term long positions should set stop - profit levels. Call options can be held with short - term stop - profit levels set [16]. 2. Index Industry Trend Review - Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The performance of the four major indexes was different, with small and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap indexes falling. The growth and cyclical style indexes continued to rise, while the financial, consumer, and stable style indexes declined. In the Shenwan industry, TMT and cyclical sectors such as computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and media led the rise, while sectors such as military industry, real estate, agriculture, and coal led the decline [22][25]. 3. Main Contract and Basis Trend - Among the four major indexes, IC and IM continued to rise, while IH and IF adjusted. In terms of basis, the quarterly main contract basis of IM returned to a reasonable level. In terms of arbitrage among main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upwards, IH/IF oscillated, IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upwards, and IM/IC continued to decline [32][36]. 4. Policy and Economy - Economic Data: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover. PPI has shown different trends since 2023. In November 2025, industrial enterprise revenue continued to decline to 1.6%, and inventory continued to rise to 4.6%. The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling since May 2023, reaching 5.89% in November 2025 [42][45][53]. - Policy: The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize and boost the capital market. The State Council issued the New Nine - Point Plan to strengthen investor returns. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [10]. 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The performance of A - shares showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and recover in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indexes rebounded again [79][83]. 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 17.0155, with an upper - limit value of 15.68, at the 92.32 percentile since 2010, indicating a high valuation. The ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [94]. 7. Fed Interest Rate No information provided on the Fed interest rate. 8. Capital Flows - Margin Trading: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 670 billion yuan; as of January 15, 2026, the net inflow was 177.1 billion yuan, with a large net inflow of 98.1 billion yuan in the first five trading days. - ETF: From April 7, 2025, to January 16, 2026, the ETF scale increased by 71.8 billion yuan, 137.1 billion yuan less than the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the ETF funds had a small net outflow of 138.3 billion yuan. - Private Securities Investment Funds: The scale increased by 1.8253 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a significant increase of 1.040028 trillion yuan in October, and the current total scale is 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale in the first 11 months of 2025 was 433.7 billion yuan. - Insurance Funds: In the third quarter of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.00%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan, and after deducting the scale increase, it increased by 758.4 billion yuan. - Newly Established Funds: As of September 30, 2025, the newly established stock - type fund shares were 323.3 billion, of which 137 billion were in the third quarter; the newly established hybrid - type fund shares were 103.6 billion, of which 53 billion were in the third quarter. In 2025, index - type funds had a net inflow of 104.9 billion yuan, while active equity - type funds had a net outflow of 444.9 billion yuan, and equity - type funds had a net outflow of 340 billion yuan [13][103][105]. 9. Technical Analysis No information provided on technical analysis other than the historical price charts of the four major indexes.