宏观周报：高位大幅震荡，交易所降温-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - View: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - Strategy: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]