东证期货商品期权周报-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market slightly declined this week, with an average daily trading volume of 8.91 million contracts and an average daily open interest of 8.65 million contracts, showing a week-on-week change of -5.28% and +0.30% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying assets of commodity options showed mixed performance, with non-ferrous metals and precious metals mostly rising. The varieties with higher weekly gains include silver (+20.03%), Shanghai tin (+14.78%), and styrene (+4.10%); those with higher weekly losses include caustic soda (-9.80%), glass (-3.58%), and rapeseed meal (-3.55%) [2][16]. - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week, with 51 varieties having their current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. For varieties with high implied volatility, pay attention to unilateral risks and consider short - volatility opportunities; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a relatively high cost - performance [2][16]. - The PCR values of certain varieties indicate that the market has concentrated expectations for both upward and downward movements. For example, the trading volume PCR of lithium carbonate, LPG, and propylene is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated expectation of a decline; while the trading volume PCR of crude oil, polysilicon, and rebar is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated expectation of an increase [3][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.91 million contracts, and the average daily open interest was 8.65 million contracts, with a week - on - week change of -5.28% and +0.30% respectively [1][7]. - The actively traded varieties this week include silver (690,000 contracts), PTA (620,000 contracts), and glass (580,000 contracts) [1][7]. - Five varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant growth in styrene (+192%), fuel oil (+182%), and Shanghai zinc (+164%); while industrial silicon (-85%), polysilicon (-77%), and lithium carbonate (-71%) had significant trading volume declines [1][7]. - The varieties with relatively high average daily open interest this week were cotton (530,000 contracts), soybean meal (500,000 contracts), and glass (470,000 contracts), and fuel oil had a relatively rapid week - on - week increase in open interest (+71%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Asset Price Movements - Non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally rose. High - gain varieties were silver (+20.03%), Shanghai tin (+14.78%), and styrene (+4.10%); high - loss varieties were caustic soda (-9.80%), glass (-3.58%), and rapeseed meal (-3.55%) [2][16]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. Varieties with a large week - on - week increase in implied volatility include silver (+18.611 pct), tin (+15.11 pct), and lithium carbonate (+8.86 pct) [2][16]. - Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high include non - ferrous metals, caustic soda, pure benzene, and PVC; those at a historical low include urea and manganese silicon [2][16]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of lithium carbonate, LPG, and propylene is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the trading volume PCR of crude oil, polysilicon, and rebar is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase [3][17]. - The open interest PCR of propylene, Shanghai tin, and synthetic rubber is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of log, polysilicon, and live hogs is at a one - year low, indicating a build - up of bullish sentiment [3][17]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [21]. 3.3.1 Energy - Relevant charts show data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [22][24]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - PTA: Charts display data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [30][36]. - Caustic Soda: Similar data is presented through relevant charts [39][40]. - Glass: Key data is shown in corresponding charts [46][47]. - Soda Ash: Charts provide data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [54][59]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals - Charts show data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [62][66]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Relevant charts present data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [69][70]. - Manganese Silicon: Key data is shown in corresponding charts [76][77]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Charts display data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [84][89]. - Aluminum: Similar data is presented through relevant charts [92][94]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Charts show data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [98][99]. - Palm Oil: Key data is presented in corresponding charts [104][105]. - Cotton: Relevant charts provide data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [112][117].