Changjiang Securities·2026-01-18 23:30Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - From 2024 to 2025, most food categories are expected to experience negative year-on-year sales growth, facing significant growth pressure. Frozen food is relatively outstanding, achieving nearly 2% positive growth in 2025. The decline in growth rates for condiments and dairy products has notably narrowed. However, convenient fast food and snack categories are under considerable pressure, with the former expected to decline by 8% in 2025 and the latter experiencing a continuous decline of over 10% for two consecutive years, primarily due to channel fragmentation, price wars, and consumer downgrading [2][4][14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Growth Trends - The sales growth rate for most food categories is projected to remain negative from 2024 to 2025, with frozen food showing a positive growth of nearly 2% in 2025. The growth rate decline for condiments and dairy products has significantly narrowed, while convenient fast food and snack categories are under pressure, with the former expected to decline by 8% and the latter over 10% [2][4][14]. Sales Volume Trends - The year-on-year change in sales volume for various categories generally follows the same trend as sales revenue. The snack category is expected to see a significant increase in sales volume decline in 2025 compared to 2024, contrasting with the moderate decline in sales revenue. This is attributed to the rise of bulk snack channels, which have diverted demand for smaller purchases, forcing traditional retail channels to increase single-item specifications to maintain cost-effectiveness, thereby reducing sales volume [4][14]. Price Trends - Over the past five quarters (Q4 2024 to Q3 2025), the price index for food, beverages, and daily chemicals has consistently remained below 100, indicating ongoing price downward pressure. By Q4 2025, the indices for these three categories are concentrated between 98-99, with food slightly better than the others, but the difference is minimal. The overall price trend is converging, with a narrowing fluctuation range, indicating a lack of significant independent trends across categories, primarily influenced by the macroeconomic environment [4][16]. Subsector Performance - The food and beverage index has shown a 0.19% increase since early 2026, lagging behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.20%. The recent week has seen leading gains in red wine and snack sectors, while the white wine and condiment sectors have experienced significant pullbacks [6][42]. Industry Dynamics - The industry is actively responding to market changes through digital transformation, new product incubation, and capital operations. Notable movements include Guizhou Moutai's user growth on the "i Moutai" platform and East Peak Beverage's projected significant profit growth for 2025. Additionally, new product launches and strategic partnerships are being pursued by various companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences [7][48][49].