特朗普宣布因格陵兰岛向欧洲八国加征关税

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation is escalating due to Trump's tariff announcements, affecting market risk - appetite across various asset classes. [5][15][17] - Different markets are in various states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by policy changes and seasonal factors. [2][24][30] Summary by Category Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chair candidate Hasset is out, and Trump's tariff announcement boosts gold's safe - haven appeal. Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and there is an opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio. [12][13] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff on European countries over Greenland raises geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short - term. [15][18] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the new Fed Chair lead to high - level oscillations in the US stock market during the earnings season. [22] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. Bond market rebound momentum will weaken, with a short - term oscillatory trend and a bearish long - term outlook. [24][25] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Regulators are cooling the stock market, and the spring rally needs new catalysts. The long - position strategy for stock indices can be maintained. [26] Commodity News and Comments Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is weak. The spot price is supported by downstream restocking, but the upward momentum of the futures is limited, with a short - term oscillatory trend. [28] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices are stable. Considering the cold wave in February, coal consumption is expected to rise, and coal prices are expected to remain flat. [30] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Congo (DRC) restarts a large - scale iron ore export project. Iron ore prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend due to high inventory and weak demand. [31][32] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel production and inventory data show that supply - demand contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices may be strong in the short - term but face high inventory risks later. [35][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - US biofuel policy and China - Canada trade agreements affect the oil market. Palm oil has short - term long - position opportunities, soybean oil can be a long - position variety, and rapeseed oil should be observed. [38][41] Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar production is increasing, and demand is recovering. International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate. [44][45] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton export sales are strong, but the upward momentum of the external market is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. [51][52] Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - South American soybean harvest is promising, and domestic soybean meal supply is excessive. The May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. [53] Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are issues in some copper mines. Macro - level factors weaken, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. [57][58] Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply disruptions and demand support lead to a situation where lithium carbonate prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities after the position and volatility stabilize. [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME's decision has a limited impact on lead. Lead fundamentals are weakening, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. [65][66] Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Macro - sentiment weakens, but zinc fundamentals are not significantly weak. Zinc prices may oscillate and adjust in the short - term. [70] Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel supply is expected to shrink, and prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities on dips. [72][73] Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Tin price fluctuations intensify. Pay attention to customs data, processing fees, and consumer recovery. [77][78] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - With the decline of risk premiums, LPG prices are expected to oscillate horizontally. [80] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are rising, with a short - term oscillatory and strong trend. [81][82] Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count increases, and the short - term upward momentum of oil prices is expected to weaken. [83][84]