Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see for now [6]. - For cotton, the January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic market. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the fact that the off - season is not off - peak with an increase in the downstream operating rate compared to the same period last year, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term fluctuation range increased. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then look for opportunities to go long [11]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly increased compared to the previous month, and the US export volume is slightly decreased. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for domestic meal prices. China may significantly reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15%, which is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices. Currently, the protein meal price has fallen to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term fluctuation range will increase [15]. - For oils, the current high production and sluggish exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventories. The inventories of the three major domestic oils are also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamentals are weak. However, in the long run, the production estimate of Malaysia is lowered, Indonesia has confiscated illegal plantations, and it is expected that the consumption of US biodiesel soybean oil will increase in 2026. The outlook is optimistic, so it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [20]. - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under the previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - festival stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and as the spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase, the near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside space. The far - end contracts have a long - term positive expectation due to the peak of production capacity, but the realization path is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [23]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated better consumption. At the same time, the large difference between fat and standard pig prices has led to sentiment of reluctance to sell and hold back pigs. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short term, the structural contradiction has not been resolved, and the downward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, the supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the live - pig inventory piling up later, so the far - end price may still be under pressure [26]. Summary by Product Sugar Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% compared to the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups were 5,320 - 5,390 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups were 5,190 - 5,230 yuan/ton, also unchanged; and the mainstream quotes of processing sugar mills were in the range of 5,800 - 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged as well [4]. - According to UNICA data, in the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of December was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%; the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. According to data from the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of January 15, 2026, the national sugar production in India had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared to 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518. According to export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar in December, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 390,000 tons compared to the previous month. Among them, the sugar exports to China in December were 385,300 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 56,000 tons compared to the previous month. According to data released by the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons in the previous week [5]. Strategy Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February. After the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see for now [6]. Cotton Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 0.58% compared to the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,931 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [8]. - According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared to the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared to the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared to the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared to the previous year. Among them, the January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared to the December forecast, with the export estimate remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production estimate for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production estimate for India was lowered by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; and the production estimate for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to USDA data, as of the week of January 8, the current - year cotton export sales in the US were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 191,000 tons; among them, the exports to China in that week were 13,600 tons, and the cumulative exports to China were 85,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 71,200 tons. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 16, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons [8][10]. Strategy The January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic market. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the fact that the off - season is not off - peak with an increase in the downstream operating rate compared to the same period last year, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term fluctuation range increased. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then look for opportunities to go long [11]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,727 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton or 0.47% compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton or 1.23% compared to the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the Chinese and Canadian governments have reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China has promised to reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% at one time. According to USDA export sales data, as of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the cumulative export of soybeans in the current year was 30.64 million tons; among them, the exports of soybeans to China in that week were 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative exports of soybeans to China in the current year were 8.12 million tons. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared to the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared to December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to the previous year. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared to the previous year; the January forecast for Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared to the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared to the previous year; the January forecast for Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared to the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly lowered by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared to the December forecast. According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week of January 9, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a decrease of 730,000 tons compared to the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.03 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons compared to the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 49.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 8.12 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons compared to the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [14]. Strategy The January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly increased compared to the previous month, and the US export volume is slightly decreased. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for domestic meal prices. China may significantly reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15%, which is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices. Currently, the protein meal price has fallen to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term fluctuation range will increase [15]. Oils Market Information - On Friday, the oils futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,016 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan/ton or 0.98% compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8,674 yuan/ton, an increase of 96 yuan/ton or 1.12% compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,063 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan/ton or 2.66% compared to the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day; and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [17][18]. - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keeping it roughly at the current proposed level, and may abandon the plan to impose penalties on the import of renewable fuels and renewable fuel raw materials. The deputy minister of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. According to USDA data, the January estimate of US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.249 million tons compared to the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons compared to the previous year. According to data from the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to November. According to data released by MPOB, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons; the production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons; the export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons. MPOB estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 will be 19.5 - 19.8 million tons, lower than 20.28 million tons in 2025. According to data released by SPPOMA, from January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 20.49%, and the oil extraction rate remained unchanged. According to sample data released by MMYSTEEL, as of the week of January 9, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 158,600 tons and a decrease of 70,200 tons compared to the previous week [19]. Strategy The current high production and sluggish exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventories. The inventories of the three major domestic oils are also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamentals are weak. However, in the long run, the production estimate of Malaysia is lowered, Indonesia has confiscated illegal plantations, and it is expected that the consumption of US biodiesel soybean oil will increase in 2026. The outlook is optimistic, so
2026-01-19：五矿期货农产品早报-20260119
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-19 00:47