信贷结构分化，M2增速大幅回升

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, the financial data continued the pattern of weak credit recovery and structurally loose liquidity. Looking ahead, the support of cross - border capital inflows due to RMB appreciation for monetary growth is expected to continue. The central bank is more likely to use structural tools and optimize existing policies to guide capital flows. For the equity market, the logic relying solely on aggregate easing is insufficient, and more attention should be paid to the financing structure, capital flow, and the sustainability of real - economy repair. For the bond market, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term as the real - economy demand repair is not stable, and there are constraints from inflation and government bond supply [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Socio - Financial Growth Continues to Decline, with Government Bonds as the Core Drag Factor - In December, the new social financing scale was about 2.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped from 8.5% in the previous month to 8.3%. The significant year - on - year decline in government bond financing was the main reason for the weakening of social financing. After excluding government bonds, new RMB loans slightly exceeded expectations and supported social financing in December. However, the expansion momentum of social financing growth is declining [5]. 3.2 Continued Differentiation in Credit Structure - In December, the new RMB loan volume was about 910 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 80 billion yuan. Resident and enterprise financing continued to diverge. Resident loans were negative year - on - year, with both short - term and long - term loans being weak, related to the sluggish real - estate sales, low consumer willingness, and early loan repayment. In contrast, enterprise financing recovered significantly at the end of the year, with short - term loans, long - term loans, and bill financing all increasing. The improvement was driven by policy - based projects and year - end bank impulse, but its sustainability is to be observed [6]. 3.3 M2 Increase Driven by Liability - Side Structure Change - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 rose to 8.5%. The change mainly came from the liability - side structure adjustment, as a large number of inter - bank certificates of deposit matured and the issuance growth of bank financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit slowed down, leading to funds flowing back to the banking system. The RMB appreciation also supported the M2 growth. In contrast, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 declined, due to a high base and weak enterprise capital turnover and investment expansion willingness [7]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Overall, the December financial data maintained the pattern of weak credit recovery and structurally loose liquidity. The support of cross - border capital inflows due to RMB appreciation for monetary growth is expected to continue. The central bank will use structural tools and optimize existing policies. For the equity market, focus on financing structure and real - economy repair signals. For the bond market, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to unstable real - economy demand repair and constraints from inflation and government bond supply [8].