Changjiang Securities·2026-01-19 00:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aerospace and defense sector [9]. Core Insights - The report indicates that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the production pace of domestic commercial aircraft and the self-sufficiency of commercial aviation engines are expected to accelerate, becoming significant growth drivers for the military aviation sector. This is anticipated to lead to a revaluation of related stocks in the aviation sector [3]. - Over the next 20 years, the global commercial aviation market is projected to reach approximately 48.5 trillion yuan, averaging about 2.4 trillion yuan annually. The Chinese market is expected to accumulate around 10 trillion yuan, averaging over 500 billion yuan per year [6]. - By 2029, China's civil aviation fleet is expected to require more than 400 new commercial aircraft annually, with a cumulative need for nearly 2,000 aircraft during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][18]. Summary by Sections Domestic Commercial Aircraft - The domestic commercial aircraft market is expected to break the oligopoly of Airbus and Boeing, which currently hold over 90% of the global market share. The C919 aircraft has various models, including the basic, extended, and plateau versions, with plans for an extended version to enhance market coverage [6][25][33]. - The structure of the C919 aircraft is primarily produced by domestic manufacturers, achieving basic localization. The body structure accounts for approximately 30%-35% of the total value, while the engine and onboard systems account for 20%-25% and 25%-30%, respectively [38][39]. Domestic Commercial Aviation Engines - The domestic commercial aviation engine market is projected to exceed 2.9 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, with an expected demand for over 900 engines annually by 2029. Currently, the market is dominated by foreign manufacturers, with no domestic engines in operation as of 2024 [7][46][49]. - The report highlights that the domestic engine manufacturer, AVIC Engine, is making strides towards self-sufficiency, with products like the CJ1000 and CJ2000 engines showing technological maturity [7][46]. Commercial Aviation Industry Chain - The commercial aviation industry chain consists of three main segments: aircraft body, onboard systems, and engines. Key players include AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, AVIC Heavy Machinery, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the growth of the domestic aircraft market [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of achieving self-sufficiency in the aviation engine sector, as it is currently a critical bottleneck for domestic aircraft production [7][46].