五矿期货早报有色金属日报-20260119

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper market is affected by factors such as the weakening expectation of Trump's tariff on key minerals, the plan of the US to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, and the loose liquidity expectation in the US financial market. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate to balance supply and demand [3]. - The aluminum price has fallen due to the continuous accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the cooling of the precious metal and copper markets. However, the high spot premium in the US and the low LME global aluminum inventory limit the downward space of the aluminum price. The short - term aluminum price may be relatively firm [5][6]. - The casting aluminum alloy has strong price support due to the strong cost and continuous supply - side disturbances, but the demand is relatively average, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is improving marginally, and the social inventory is accumulating. The short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [13]. - Zinc has a large room for price compensation compared with copper and aluminum. Although the zinc price has given back some gains, the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - wide cycle, and the subsequent trends need to be observed [15]. - The tin market has weak demand and an expected improvement in supply. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The lithium carbonate price has fluctuated greatly. The current price has certain emotional premiums, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to decline, the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling opportunities [26][27]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term, with prices in a high - level volatile pattern due to supply shortages, falling inventories, and significant cost support [29]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the domestic equity market adjusted, the precious metal price and copper price declined. LME copper 3M closed down 2.48% to $12,822/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,280 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,450 to 143,575 tons, and the domestic SHFE weekly inventory increased by 33,000 to 214,000 tons [2]. Strategy Views - The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate to balance supply and demand. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 98,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,500 - $13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - On Friday, the aluminum price continued to fall. LME aluminum closed down 1.29% to $3,130/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,945 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot three - place inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased slightly [4]. Strategy Views - The short - term aluminum price may be relatively firm. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,800 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,090 - $3,160/ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the casting aluminum alloy price continued to fall. The main AD2603 contract closed down 1.81% to 22,735 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the trading volume remained at a relatively high level [8]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to strong cost support and average demand [9]. Lead Market Information - On Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.37% to 17,473 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S fell to $2,075/ton. The social inventory of lead ingots increased [11]. Strategy Views - The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, and the short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [13]. Zinc Market Information - On Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.38% to 24,746 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S fell to $3,264/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [14]. Strategy Views - Zinc has a large room for price compensation compared with copper and aluminum. The short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Tin Market Information - On Friday, the tin price dropped significantly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 405,240 yuan/ton, down 6.38%. The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is mainly rigid [16]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 360,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $45,000 - $53,000/ton [17]. Nickel Market Information - On January 16th, the nickel price dropped significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,890 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The spot premium decreased [18]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On Friday, the Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) decreased. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate declined [22]. Strategy Views - The current price has certain emotional premiums, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 139,500 - 149,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina Market Information - On January 16th, the alumina index fell 1.26% to 2,745 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased, and the ore price decreased [25]. Strategy Views - The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling opportunities. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton [26][27]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,275 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The social inventory decreased [29]. Strategy Views - The short - term market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with prices in a high - level volatile pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [29].