金信期货日刊-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and range-bound in the medium term, with the core depending on three variables: inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream operating rates [2]. - The overall trend of the week was a rise followed by a fall, with increased trading volume today due to morning positive news. The 50 and 300 indices opened high and closed low, with a short - term 5 - minute adjustment showing signs of completion, and an expected morning rally on Monday [6]. - Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment, and the recommended operation is to go long [9]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it has been weak recently, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [12][13]. - Glass showed a rise followed by a fall today, and the bearish - leaning volatile view remains unchanged. Daily melting has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [16][17]. - There are bearish views on rubber. The macro - environment shows signs of correction, and domestic spot inventory pressure is becoming prominent [20]. - Pulp futures have entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily downward movement. Fundamentally, recent changes suggest that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price, and it should be treated with a bearish - leaning volatile view [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Reasons for price decline: Traditional winter demand is low, downstream profits are compressed, some devices plan to stop or reduce production, and procurement willingness is weak; port inventory is high (about 1.5372 million tons in early January), and inland factories face high shipment pressure; the chemical sector corrected after a collective rise, and funds took profits, intensifying short - term fluctuations [2]. - Subsequent trend judgment: In the short term (1 - 2 weeks), there is support at 2220 - 2230 yuan/ton and resistance at 2320 yuan/ton. Iranian imports are expected to decrease significantly in January (from 1.35 million tons to 780,000 tons), coal prices are stable with support, and if port inventory reduction accelerates, prices may rebound [2]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, operate with a light position, and take profits in batches [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The overall trend of the week was a rise followed by a fall, with increased trading volume today due to morning positive news. The 50 and 300 indices opened high and closed low [6]. - Technical analysis: The short - term 5 - minute adjustment shows signs of completion, and there is an expected morning rally on Monday. It should be treated as a volatile market with high - selling and low - buying operations [6]. Gold - Market performance: Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment [9]. - Trading strategy: Go long [9]. Iron Ore - Market situation: It is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. The supply is expected to be more abundant with the commissioning of the Simandou project, and terminal demand, except for exports, is weak in real estate and infrastructure [12][13]. - Technical analysis: It has been weak recently, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [12]. Glass - Market situation: Daily melting has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [17]. - Technical analysis: It showed a rise followed by a fall today, and the bearish - leaning volatile view remains unchanged [16]. Rubber - Bearish reasons: The macro - environment shows signs of correction, and domestic spot inventory pressure is becoming prominent [20]. Pulp - Market situation: Pulp futures have entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily downward movement. Fundamentally, recent changes include the halt of the further rise of broad - leaf pulp (staying around 4700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and a large number of pulp warehouse receipts registration, indicating that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price [24]. - Trading view: It should be treated with a bearish - leaning volatile view [24].