中泰期货晨会纪要-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - financial: For stock index futures, short - term operations should focus on volume and price, considering profit - taking; for treasury bond futures, adopt an oscillatory approach [14][15]. - Black commodities: Steel products may oscillate in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be shorted on rallies; coking coal and coke prices may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the upside is limited; for ferroalloys, manganese ore is strong in the short term, and silicon iron can be long - bought on dips in the medium - to - long term; for soda ash and glass, observe soda ash, and hold long positions in glass or take profits on rallies [16][18][19][20][21]. - Non - ferrous metals and new materials: For zinc, observe and keep existing short positions; for lead, observe; lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly; industrial silicon may continue to oscillate, and polysilicon may oscillate weakly [22][24][26][27]. - Agricultural products: Cotton may enter a short - term consolidation stage; sugar may oscillate and consolidate; for eggs, adopt an oscillatory approach for 02 - 03 contracts; apples may be strong; corn may oscillate within a range; jujubes may oscillate; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies [31][33][36][39][40][41][42]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil may weaken; fuel oil prices will follow oil prices; plastics may oscillate; rubber may oscillate, and short - buy on dips; synthetic rubber may weaken in the short term; methanol may have a short - term correction, and long - buy far - month contracts on dips; caustic soda should be shorted; asphalt may oscillate within a range; the polyester industry chain may be under pressure, and short - sell in the short term and conduct positive spreads in the medium term; LPG may have short - term rebound momentum but limited long - term upside; pulp may oscillate; logs may oscillate; urea futures may be strong due to expectations [45][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][56][57][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a meeting to promote consumption and address issues such as arrears to enterprises and migrant workers' wages [7]. - The CSRC emphasized market stability and strengthened supervision [7]. - The central bank and the financial regulatory authority adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans [7]. - China and Canada reached a consensus on economic and trade cooperation, and Canada will give China an EV quota [8]. - The CSRC solicited opinions on the derivatives trading supervision regulations [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed large - scale urban renewal investment [8]. - China developed a high - energy hydrogen ion implanter [9]. - Two rocket launches failed [9]. - Xidian University made achievements in radar antennas and chip heat dissipation [9][10]. - The US is about to withdraw from the WHO but owes dues [10]. - The US may impose high tariffs on South Korean memory chip manufacturers [10]. - The first shipment of Simandou iron ore arrived in China [10]. - Nvidia revised data on copper demand in data centers [11]. - Trump's statement affected the Fed chair speculation [12]. - The US sent a message to Iran [12]. - Barclays analysts predicted US corporate bond issuance [12]. - The SHFE adjusted trading limits for silver and nickel futures [12]. 3.2 Macro - financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On Friday, the A - share market opened high and closed low. Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, considering profit - taking. If there is no further increase in volume and an inverted hammer line, the index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose, and bond yields are steep. Adopt an oscillatory approach, with the main focus on the money market, risk appetite, and the pace of allocation funds [15]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Macro - policies are slightly positive for the steel industry. Steel is in a de - stocking state, with acceptable orders in the short term. Real - estate and infrastructure demand is weak, while coil demand is good. Steel may oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices have rebounded due to supply disruptions. Coke has started the first price increase. In the short term, there is a chance for a price rebound, but the upside is limited due to the pressure on steel industry profits [19]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese ore is strong in the short term, but it is difficult to transfer profits downstream. Silicon iron has no significant fundamental changes, and it can be long - bought on dips in the medium - to - long term [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. Observe soda ash. Glass may improve its supply - demand situation if production cuts are implemented. Hold long positions in glass or take profits on rallies [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories increased slightly. The price of zinc futures fell at night. It is recommended to observe and keep existing short positions [22][23]. 3.4.2 Lead - Lead inventories increased to a one - and - a - half - month high. The price of lead futures fell at night. It is recommended to observe [24][25]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - After a short - term increase driven by export expectations, the price of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly due to weak vehicle demand and macro - sentiment adjustment [26]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may continue to oscillate, with pressure on the upside. Polysilicon may oscillate weakly, waiting for the improvement plan on January 20 [27][29]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Cotton supply is currently loose, but there are expectations of supply reduction in the long term. Zhengzhou cotton may enter a short - term consolidation stage [31][32]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The global sugar market has a surplus. Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand growth. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate and consolidate [33][34]. 3.5.3 Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for eggs may peak and then weaken. Adopt an oscillatory approach for 02 - 03 contracts [36][37][38]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices may be strong. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. Observe the consumption during the Spring Festival stocking period [39]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices may oscillate within a range. The key is the change in farmers' selling sentiment. Observe the port collection and the potential selling pressure in March [40]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujube prices may oscillate. Observe the market performance during the consumption peak season [41][42]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is slow, and the price may be strong in the short term but with limited upside. Short near - month contracts on rallies [42][43]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support oil prices, but the supply surplus is still severe. Oil prices may weaken if the geopolitical situation eases [45]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices, with the focus on the geopolitical situation in Iran. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved [47]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and weak demand, but upstream losses may support a small rebound. Adopt an oscillatory approach [48][49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Rubber may oscillate, with cost support. Look for short - buying opportunities on dips [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may weaken in the short term. Take profits on short positions on dips [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol's supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. Long - buy far - month contracts on dips [52]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda production is at a high level, and the inventory is high. Adopt a short - selling approach [53]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt prices may oscillate within a range, and the winter - storage period has temporarily stabilized [54][55]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations. Short - sell in the short term and conduct positive spreads in the medium term [56]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices may have short - term rebound momentum due to cost and demand support, but the long - term upside is limited. Lightly short - sell [57]. 3.6.11 Pulp - Pulp prices may oscillate due to weakening downstream demand and new warehouse receipts. Observe the international situation and macro factors [57][58]. 3.6.12 Logs - Log prices may oscillate, with the market in a weak supply - demand balance [59]. 3.6.13 Urea - Urea futures are supported by expectations, but the spot market is weakening. Observe the improvement of spot market liquidity [59].