格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower, rose unilaterally in the morning session, and fluctuated narrowly horizontally in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.09%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03% [1] - On Friday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly higher, then fell back to the previous closing level and fluctuated narrowly until the close. It closed down 0.17% from the previous trading day, forming a small negative line. The trading volume was 3.06 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 2.94 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 86.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 34 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 52.7 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.37% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.44% for the whole day, compared with 1.50% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds fell 1.98 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year fell 1.81 basis points to 1.61%, the 10 - year fell 1.20 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30 - year fell 0.22 basis points to 2.30% [1] - On January 16, the State Council executive meeting pointed out that it is necessary to implement a special action to boost consumption, release the integrated effect of policies, combine people's livelihood improvement and consumption promotion, enhance residents' endogenous consumption power, and play the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth. It also mentioned accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, supporting new business forms, models and scenarios, increasing the supply of high - quality services, and improving the long - term mechanism for promoting consumption [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In December, the social financing scale increased by 2.2075 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 1.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 910 billion yuan, with a market expectation of 680 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 80 billion yuan. Both the social financing and credit data in December were better than market expectations [1][2] - At the end of December, M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with a market expectation of 7.9%; M1 increased by 3.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. China's export amount in December denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, better than the estimated 2.2%. China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month - on - month in December, and PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, indicating a mild recovery in inflation [1][2] - The central bank announced that starting from January 19, 2026, it will lower the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [2]