格林期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to factors such as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle - East, significant destocking of port methanol last week, expected reduction in imported arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans for olefin plants. It is expected to experience short - term wide - range oscillations, with the 05 contract having a reference range of 2200 - 2320. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 dropped 3 yuan to 2245 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell 15 yuan to 2225 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 2538 lots to 440,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 1811 lots to 610,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [2] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9690 tons from the previous period. In East China, the inventory decreased by 84,400 tons; in South China, it decreased by 12,500 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 45090 tons, a slight increase of 320 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a decrease of 47,800 tons from the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The olefin operating rate is 86.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 79.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the acetic acid operating rate is 78.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the MTBE operating rate remains flat at 67.5% [2] 3.2.4 Import - In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. Saudi Arabia had the largest import volume at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] 3.2.5 Oil Price - Due to the ongoing instability of the geopolitical situation and some traders' bargain - hunting, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 59.44 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.37 dollars/barrel to 64.13 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 12.7 to 439.7 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 446.2 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle - East have not completely subsided. Crude oil prices rose on Friday. Last week, port methanol had significant destocking. After mid - January, the imported arrivals are expected to decrease. Coupled with the restart plans for olefin plants, methanol faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations and will experience short - term wide - range oscillations. The 05 contract has a reference range of 2200 - 2320 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [2]