股指期货：跟随政策方向，平稳运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the market rose and then fell, reaching a new high in this rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1%. The rapid rise brought policy cooling pressure, with the three major exchanges increasing the margin ratio for margin trading and the CSRC emphasizing prevention of large market fluctuations. Although the central bank mentioned a structural interest rate cut, the overall space for full - scale easing is limited [1]. - In the later stage, the policy aims to consolidate the stable and positive market trend while preventing large fluctuations. With the "Spring Rally" sentiment intensifying and the upward slope of the market steepening, the market is expected to enter a stronger - side oscillatory state, ending the previous unilateral upward trend. If the market rises too fast again, more policy cooling measures will be introduced. Given the current fundamental background, a significant decline is unlikely [2]. - Factors to watch include December economic data in China, local two - sessions, the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting, and the Fed's policy direction [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [3]. Trend Strategy - Adopt a strategy of being more bullish on pullbacks. The core operating range of the IF2601 main contract is expected to be between 4595 and 4832 points; for the IH2601 main contract, it is between 3004 and 3143 points; for the IC2601 main contract, it is between 7992 and 8527 points; and for the IM2601 main contract, it is between 7953 and 8489 points [3]. Variety Strategy - Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Nikkei 225 rose 3.84%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rose 3.70%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.34%, while the NASDAQ dropped 0.66% and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.45% [7]. - Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase. The CSI 1000 has risen 36.4%, the CSI 500 has risen 40.7%, etc. Last week, the major domestic indices also showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.45% [7]. - In the CSI 500 index, most industries rose last week, with the information industry rising 6.29% and the raw material industry rising 2.71%. In the CSI 300 index, industries showed mixed performance, with the information industry rising 2.88% and the consumer industry dropping 2.73% [10]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IC main contract of stock index futures had the largest increase, and the IM main contract had the largest amplitude [16]. - The trading volume of stock index futures declined, and the open interest first rose and then declined [16]. - The report also presented the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of stock index futures main contracts [16]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of January 9, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.14 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 14.42 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 12.01 times. The P/E ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 33.94 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 46.78 times [17][18]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The report showed the changes in the balance of margin trading in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the decline in the capital interest rate last week, and the net investment of the central bank [20][22].