焦煤焦炭周报：下游需求放缓，双焦震荡偏弱-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand is slowing down, and the double - coking market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals have limited support. Due to continuous profit contraction, coke enterprises have slowed down their production, and coke output has declined. The output of upstream coal mines has rebounded, putting pressure on the supply side. In the off - season of downstream finished products, the inventory pressure is high, steel mill operations have declined, blast furnace maintenance has increased, and hot metal production has decreased month - on - month. With significant supply - demand pressure, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3163 | 19 | 0.60 | 5178836 | 2320984 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3315 | 21 | 0.64 | 2077198 | 1448345 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 812.0 | - 2.5 | - 0.31 | 1331049 | 652402 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1171.0 | - 24.5 | - 2.05 | 6677833 | 625637 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1717.0 | - 31.0 | - 1.77 | 116309 | 38799 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Downstream: Steel mill operations declined, blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production decreased month - on - month. Due to the off - season of terminal demand, hot metal production was weak. Steel mills maintained coke production, with a slight decrease in daily coke output and a significant increase in inventory. Last week, the profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points. The daily hot metal output was 228.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.53 tons. The daily coke output was 46.72 (month - on - month - 0.16) tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.38% (- 0.29). The coke inventory was 650.33 (+ 4.6) tons, and the available days of coke were 11.97 (- 0.05) days [5]. - Mid - stream: Coking profits contracted significantly, coke enterprises slowed down their operations, and coke output decreased. The average national profit per ton of coke was - 65 (month - on - month - 20) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 72.55% (- 0.14); the daily coke output was 63.45 (- 0.12) tons, and the coke inventory was 81.81 (- 4.26) tons [5]. - Upstream: The output of domestic coal mines rebounded, putting pressure on the supply side. Due to the addition of a sample, this period's data showed a large increase. The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. The daily output of raw coal was 197.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.9 tons; the raw coal inventory was 549.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76.5 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 76.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4 tons; and the clean coal inventory was 272.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.6 tons [6]. 3.3 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand, including optimizing the loan discount policies for service - sector business entities and personal consumption loans, implementing the loan discount policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, establishing a special guarantee plan for private investment, setting up a risk - sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, and optimizing the fiscal discount policy for equipment renewal loans [7][8]. - The National Commerce Work Conference was held in Beijing from January 10th to 11th. The meeting pointed out that in 2026, the national commerce system should focus on eight aspects of work, including optimizing the implementation of the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones and promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption [11]. - The central bank launched a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. This included lowering the rediscount and re - lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, combining the use of re - lending and rediscount quotas for supporting agriculture and small businesses, increasing the re - lending quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, setting aside a 1 - trillion - yuan re - lending quota for private enterprises in the total quota, expanding the support scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30%. The central bank said that there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [11]. - On January 16th, coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts, including the spot price trends of coking coal and coke, daily production volumes, capacity utilization rates, inventory data, available days of coke for steel mills, and ton - coke profits in different regions [10][13][18] etc.