多空因素交织，棕榈油波动加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors are intertwined, increasing the volatility of oils and fats, with the overall market moving in a volatile manner. The MPOB report had a negative impact, with inventory accumulation slightly exceeding expectations. The latest data shows a significant month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production, and due to the recovery of Indian import demand, export demand has continuously improved, providing support for prices. In terms of biodiesel, Indonesia has cancelled the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026, but there is still uncertainty. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be finalized in early March, which may expand the demand for US soybean oil biodiesel and cause a sharp rise in futures prices. It is expected that palm oil will move in a volatile manner in the short term [4][8][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 2.85 to 51.51 cents per pound, an increase of 5.74%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 18 to 4056 ringgit per ton, an increase of 0.45%; DCE palm oil 05 contract fell 8 to 8674 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.09%. DCE soybean oil 05 contract rose 22 to 8016 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.28%; CZCE rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 21 to 9063 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.23%. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also showed different degrees of increase. The soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 658 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan per ton; the rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 389 yuan per ton, an increase of 29 yuan per ton [4][5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The MPOB report in December showed that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory was 3.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%, slightly higher than market expectations; exports were 1.317 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76%. - From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 18.24% month - on - month. From January 1 - 10, exports increased by 16.4% - 29.2% compared with the same period last month according to different survey agencies. - Indonesia cancelled the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026. The US is advancing its biodiesel policy and is expected to finalize the 2026 biodiesel blending quota in early March, with the quota ranging from 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons. - China - Canada trade relations have improved, and the import comprehensive tariff of Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and the domestic supply of rapeseed is expected to increase in the future. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.0146 million tons, a decrease of 70,200 tons from the previous week. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased by 55,900 tons, palm oil inventory increased by 2,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 16,500 tons [8][9][11]. Industry News - Maybank analyst Ong Chee Ting believes that this year, crude palm oil prices may be mainly driven by demand, with an expected average price of 4100 ringgit per ton, trading in the range of 3700 - 4700 ringgit per ton. - Economists believe that Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate will enhance Malaysia's competitiveness in the global palm oil market. - CIMB Securities expects that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared. It has lowered the expected average price of crude palm oil this year to 4000 - 4200 ringgit per ton. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline by 5% month - on - month in January to 2.9 million tons, and production is expected to decline by 14% month - on - month to 1.57 million tons. - Malaysia has lowered its reference price for crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. - RHB Research and MBSB Research believe that stable production, high ending inventory in Malaysia, and Indonesia's new policy adjustments are factors supporting the industry. MBSB Research expects the average price of Malaysian crude palm oil in 2026 to be 4200 ringgit per ton, and RHB Research to be 4250 ringgit per ton [13][14][15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, the trends of various oils' inventory, production, and export volume, and the spreads between different oils [18][20][30].