宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20260119

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA20 line and the production situation of steel mills. [2][3] Details by Category Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. The view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line, with the core logic being the weak supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices. [2] Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable with weak trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills' production is stable, and rebar output has slightly declined. However, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, so the contraction of supply is difficult to sustain. [3] - Rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month. But the high - frequency daily trading volume is sluggish, and both supply and demand are still at the low level of the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand continues the seasonal weakness, dragging down steel prices. [3] - Currently, although rebar demand has improved, the sustainability is not strong, while the supply is weakly stable. The fundamentals show seasonal weakness, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the good commodity sentiment. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [3]