宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026年1月19日）-20260119

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating in the report Group 2: Core View - The iron ore supply and demand pattern is weak, with continuous inventory increase, weak and stable steel mill production, a decline in ore terminal consumption, limited improvement in steel mill profitability, and the accumulation of contradictions in the off - season steel market. The ore demand continues to be weak, while the supply remains high, and the ore price is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and beware of the trading logic switching to the industrial end [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating and slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions, which makes the ore price under pressure [2] Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply and demand pattern is weak. The inventory is continuously increasing, the steel mill production is weak and stable, the ore terminal consumption has declined again, and the steel mill profitability improvement is limited. In the off - season, steel market contradictions are accumulating, and the ore demand continues to be weak. The positive factor is that steel mills will replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival. The domestic port arrivals are continuously increasing, the miner shipments have decreased slightly, but both are still at a relatively high level. Overseas ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply is also rising, so the ore supply remains high. In conclusion, the ore demand is weak, the supply is high, the supply - demand pattern is weakening, the ore price is under pressure, but the market sentiment is okay, and it is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [3]