资讯早间报：隔夜夜盘市场走势-20260119

1. Overnight Night Market Trends - COMEX gold futures fell 0.49% to $4,601.10 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.23%; COMEX silver futures dropped 2.60% to $89.94 per ounce, up 13.37% for the week [4] - The main contract of U.S. crude oil rose 0.24% to $59.22 per barrel, a weekly increase of 0.17%; the main contract of Brent crude oil increased 0.41% to $64.02 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 1.07% [5] - London base metals closed lower across the board. LME copper dropped 2.16% to $12,822.5 per ton, down 1.35% for the week; LME zinc fell 3.18% to $3,209 per ton, up 1.76% for the week; LME nickel declined 4.01% to $17,825 per ton, up 0.69% for the week; LME aluminum decreased 1.17% to $3,130.5 per ton, down 0.18% for the week; LME tin dropped 8.2% to $47,765 per ton, up 4.84% for the week; LME lead fell 2.93% to $2,038 per ton, down 0.56% for the week [5] 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is soliciting public opinions on the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Derivatives Trading (Trial) (Draft for Comment)" [8] - The head of the American and Oceanian Affairs Department of the Ministry of Commerce interpreted the results of China-Canada economic and trade consultations. Canada will make positive adjustments regarding its unilateral measures against Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, etc., and individual cases of Chinese enterprises' investment and operation in Canada. In response, China will adjust its anti-dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed and anti-discrimination measures on some Canadian agricultural and aquatic products [8] - As of January 16, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (composite index) was reported at 1,574.12 points, down 73.27 points from the previous period; the China Export Containerized Freight Index was reported at 1,209.85 points, up 1.3% from the previous period [8] - U.S. President's special envoy Witkoff revealed that the United States has sent a direct message to Iran, stating that Iran's economic situation is severe and suggesting that if Iran wants to return to the international community, it can resolve relevant issues through diplomatic means [8] - The CSRC held its 2026 system work conference, emphasizing promoting the improvement of the bond market in terms of quality, structure adjustment, and volume expansion, and ensuring the smooth implementation of the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs. It also aims to steadily promote the high-quality development of the futures market and strengthen the supervision of the linkage between futures and spot markets [9] - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, listening to the report on the progress of the special action to boost consumption and studying measures to promote consumption, such as accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption [9] - The White House National Economic Council Director Hasset downplayed the federal criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, saying he expected "no problem" [11] - Jiang Bing, the deputy secretary-general of the China Energy Research Society and the director of the Carbon Neutrality Special Committee, stated that 2026 is China's real "Year of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality," and the emission reduction task has entered the stage of substantial breakthrough [11] - The U.S. Supreme Court announced that January 20 (Tuesday) will be the next ruling day, when at least one ruling may be issued regarding Trump's iconic tariff policy [11] - The National Energy Administration announced that in 2025, China's total social electricity consumption historically exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5% [12] - U.S. President Trump announced that starting from February 1, 2026, a 10% tariff will be imposed on all goods exported to the United States by Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland due to the Greenland issue. The tariff will be increased to 25% by June 1, 2026, and will continue until an agreement on the "full and complete purchase of Greenland" is reached [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of January 15, the average order days of national deep-processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a month-on-month increase of 7.9%. Against the backdrop of the low base caused by the early Spring Festival last year, the year-on-year increase reached 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep-processing enterprises in the north and south regions are diverging, with the executable order days in the south slightly increasing, and some orders can last for more than 20 days [14] - As of January 15, the theoretical profit of China's soda ash produced by the ammonia-soda process was -96.30 yuan per ton, a month-on-month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of sea salt on the raw material side remained stable, while the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, leading to a slight increase in the cost side [16] - The Syrian Transitional Government and the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) led by the Kurdish armed forces reached a new ceasefire and full integration agreement, agreeing to an immediate ceasefire on all fronts, with SDF forces withdrawing to the east of the Euphrates River. All SDF forces will be incorporated into the Syrian Ministry of Defense, Syrian national institutions will enter the eastern and northeastern provinces, and the SDF will transfer all oil field rights to the Syrian government [16] Metal Futures - There were market rumors that a production base of a leading silicon material enterprise was shut down, with all clues pointing to Tongwei Co., Ltd. On January 16, a staff member of Tongwei's securities department stated that the company has always dynamically adjusted the operating rates of its bases according to market conditions to achieve the optimal production economy, but the specific implementation was unclear [18] - As of January 16, the total inventory of lithium ore at ports and warehouses of 32 sample lithium ore traders was 204,000 tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous week, with the salable inventory at 147,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week [18] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits for relevant contracts of silver and nickel futures. The maximum number of intraday opening positions for silver futures contracts AG2602, AG2603, AG2604, etc., is 3,000 lots, and for nickel futures contracts NI2602, NI2603, NI2604, etc., it is 2,500 lots [18] - An Indonesian mainstream stainless steel mill resumed quoting on January 16 and directly raised the price by $50 per ton. SMM believes that this significant price increase was mainly driven by the strong performance of the domestic futures and spot markets in China and the continuous rise in nickel prices, prompting the mill to follow the market trend and raise its export prices [18] - NVIDIA corrected the data on the copper demand in data centers in a technical paper, revising the copper busbar usage of a one-gigawatt rack in a traditional data center to 200 tons, which is only 0.04% of the previously stated "500,000 tons," indicating a significant downward adjustment in the expected copper demand in data centers [20] Black Series Futures - The Dalian Commodity Exchange agreed that China Steel Deyuan Mineral Products Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Yong'an Capital Management Co., Ltd. would give up their qualifications as designated iron ore warehouses, and suspended the delivery business of Dalian Port Bulk Logistics Center Co., Ltd. and Cargill Met拓 Metal Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. [22] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from the previous week [22] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 16.5551 million tons, an increase of 279,840 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 319,890 tons, a decrease of 3,380 tons; the number of ships at ports was 117, an increase of 1. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17.2887 million tons, an increase of 244,260 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 335,020 tons, a decrease of 1,940 tons [22] - Coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on January 16, further enriching the risk management tools for the coal-coke-steel industry chain. Industry insiders said that after the listing of coking coal options, together with coking coal futures, coke futures, and iron ore futures and options, they will provide a more comprehensive risk management tool system covering steel raw materials for relevant industries, better meeting the refined and diversified risk management needs of industrial chain enterprises [23] - According to SteelSilver e-commerce data, the total urban inventory this week was 6.9913 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 9,100 tons (+0.13%); the total inventory of construction steel this week was 3.0045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 41,000 tons (+1.38%); the total inventory of hot-rolled coils this week was 2.0701 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 17,700 tons (-0.85%) [23] - An explosion occurred at a plate mill of Baotou Steel Co., Ltd., resulting in 2 deaths, 5 missing, and 66 people sent to the hospital, including 3 in critical condition [25] Agricultural Futures - According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from January 1 to 15, 2026, the palm oil yield per unit area in Malaysia decreased by 18.09% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03% month-on-month, and the output decreased by 18.24% month-on-month [27] - The United States has lifted the import ban on Malaysian palm oil company FGV Holdings, as it was determined that the company has taken sufficient measures to address the allegations of forced labor [28] - As of the week of January 16, the profit per head for self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 7.39 yuan, compared with a loss of 11.54 yuan per head in the previous week; the profit per head for purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.38 yuan, compared with a loss of 2.31 yuan per head in the previous week [28] - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025 was 47.724673 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month's forecast and 3.7% from the previous year's planting area. The soybean output was estimated to be 166.054076 million tons, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month's forecast and 14.6% from the previous year's output [28] - According to data released by shipping survey agency SGS, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 to 15 was 525,228 tons, an increase of 20.5% compared with the same period last month [29] - As of January 15, 2026, the total sugar output in India had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year [30] - According to the survey of all domestic oil mills by Mysteel Agricultural Products, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the third week of 2026 (from January 10 to January 16) was 1.9942 million tons, an increase of 228,400 tons from the previous week and 87,800 tons lower than the estimated crushing volume; the actual operating rate was 54.86% [32] 3. Financial Market Finance - Approved by the CSRC, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges issued a notice to adjust the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors to buy securities on margin from 80% to 100%, effective immediately. This adjustment only applies to new margin trading contracts, and the existing margin trading contracts and their extensions before the adjustment will still be subject to the previous regulations [34] - CITIC Securities stated that the adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading does not affect the overall upward trend of the market but will affect the market structure. The game in theme sectors will intensify, and the unilateral trend market driven solely by narratives and capital relay has ended. As the annual report preview period approaches, the importance of performance clues will increase again. The large-scale redemption of ETFs is part of the counter-cyclical adjustment and provides an opportunity for allocation funds to enter the market [34] - Listed securities firms have successively disclosed their performance forecasts or reports for 2025. Guolian Minsheng is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.008 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 406%; CITIC Securities is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of over 30 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.46%. Some securities analysts expect that the total non-recurring profit of 43 listed securities firms in 2025 may reach 216.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% [34] - At the beginning of 2026, institutional research on the A-share market has significantly increased. As of January 18, a total of 1,357 institutions have conducted research on A-share listed companies this year, with a total of approximately 4,897 research times. In terms of industries, the focus is on the three core sectors of information technology, industrial machinery, and healthcare, with the research emphasis on the commercialization of cutting-edge technologies, capacity expansion, and the realization of policy dividends, especially in areas such as brain-computer interfaces, semiconductors, robots, and solid-state batteries [35] - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock equity financing market achieved explosive growth, with a total financing amount of HK$612.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 250.91%. The Hong Kong stock IPO market returned to the top globally, with 117 companies raising a total of HK$285.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 224.24%. Wang Yajun of Goldman Sachs Asia said that the scale of IPOs and refinancing in the Hong Kong stock market will remain at a high level in 2026. Multiple institutions predict that the fundraising scale in 2026 will exceed HK$300 billion, and the participation rate of international long-term funds in Hong Kong stock IPO projects has increased to 85%-90% [37] - Rongbai Technology was investigated by the CSRC for suspected misleading statements in a major contract announcement. Rongbai Technology replied to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's inquiry letter, stating that the agreement did not specify the purchase amount, and the "total contract amount of 120 billion yuan" was estimated by the company, and the final actual sales amount is uncertain. The original announcement was not rigorous in stating the total contract amount and lacked sufficient risk warnings. In terms of insider trading prevention and control, after self-inspection, 2 verification objects bought and sold the company's stocks during the self-inspection period [37] - Kweichow Moutai issued a notice warning against false applications for Feitian Moutai. Currently, the company's provincial self-operated stores are signing 2026 sales contracts with existing corporate group purchase customers through offline communication, conducting qualification reviews and contract signings, and are not accepting applications through public links or social media [37] - An explosion occurred at a plate mill of Baotou Steel Co., Ltd., resulting in 2 deaths, and all 78 injured people have been rushed to local hospitals for treatment [38] - In 2025, Huatai Asset's asset management scale, management fee income, and total profit all reached record highs, with the asset management scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan [39] Industry - The test cabin of the CYZ1 manned spacecraft independently developed by Beijing Transcender Manned Space Technology Co., Ltd. completed the comprehensive verification test of the landing buffer system, and all test indicators met the expected targets, with some key indicators exceeding expectations. This is the first project in China's commercial space industry to verify the key technology of the landing buffer of a full-scale manned spacecraft test cabin. The