寒潮叠加供应扰动，煤价春节前或易涨难跌

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry, indicating a projected performance that exceeds the broader market [2][14]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to rise before the Spring Festival due to a combination of cold weather and supply disruptions, making it difficult for prices to decline [7]. - The demand for coal remains relatively stable, with supply-side uncertainties increasing, particularly from Indonesia and Australia, which may lead to a tighter supply-demand balance [7]. - The report highlights that the average daily coal consumption has decreased slightly, but the upcoming cold wave is likely to push prices upward as demand increases [7]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - A significant drop in temperatures is expected across many regions in China, which may impact coal consumption and prices [7]. - In December, coal imports reached 58.6 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, but the total annual imports are projected to decline by 9.6% [7]. - Supply disruptions from Indonesia and Australia are anticipated, with Indonesian coal exports expected to drop significantly in January [7]. Price Trends - As of January 16, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 697 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight increase compared to the previous week [7]. - The report notes that while daily coal consumption has decreased, the overall price trend is expected to be upward due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [9]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, and Shanxi Coal International, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [9]. - For the long term, companies like China Coal Energy and Shenhua Group are recommended due to their robust dividend policies and operational stability [9].