供应维持高开工率氧化铝压力未减

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is dominated by bearish fundamentals. There are no signs of concentrated production cuts on the supply side, with high operating capacities. The import window is open, and the supply surplus situation continues. The previous rapid rise in alumina futures prices led to the flow of spot resources to delivery inventories, increasing the visible inventory pressure. Alumina is expected to face downward pressure and seek new support levels [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From January 7th to January 16th, 2026, the alumina futures (active) price dropped from 2938 yuan/ton to 2751 yuan/ton, a decrease of 187 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price decreased from 2695 yuan/ton to 2666 yuan/ton, a drop of 29 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from -58 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton, a rise of 107 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina increased from 303 US dollars/ton to 308 US dollars/ton, a gain of 5 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss decreased from 0.98 yuan/ton to -99.02 yuan/ton, a decline of 100 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased from 154,828 tons to 176,802 tons, an increase of 21,974 tons, while the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in various regions also showed different degrees of decline [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main alumina futures contract fell 3.24% to close at 2751 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market on Friday was 2666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous week. In terms of bauxite, the production of domestic mines in the northern region is still slow, and the short - term supply shortage pattern will continue. The southern ore production is stable, and the domestic ore price is stable. The arrival volume of imported bauxite in China as of January 9th was 4.0423 million tons, a decrease of 483,800 tons from the previous week. The shipment from Guinea is stable, while the shipment from Australia is weak due to the rainy season. The import ore trading is light, and the price has slightly declined. On the supply side, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 89.16 million tons/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate increased by 0.31 percentage points to 80.82%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia continued to put into production new capacities, and the theoretical demand for alumina slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warrant inventory on Friday was 177,000 tons, an increase of 10,237 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [5]. Market Outlook - On the ore side, the resumption of production in the northern domestic bauxite mining areas is slow, while the southern areas have stable production and stable domestic ore prices. The shipment of Guinean bauxite is stable, while the mining and shipment of Australian mines are still at a low level due to the rainy season, with light trading. On the supply side, the previously reduced production capacity in Shanxi continues to resume, and the operation in other regions remains stable. The overall operating rate increased slightly by 0.31% to 80.82% compared with last week. The downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises' production capacity is stable, and they mainly execute long - term purchase contracts. The alumina warrant inventory is 177,000 tons, an increase of 10,237 tons during the week. Overall, the alumina fundamentals are still bearish, with no signs of concentrated production cuts on the supply side, high operating capacities, and an open import window. The supply surplus situation continues. The previous rapid increase in alumina futures prices led to the flow of spot resources to delivery inventories, increasing the visible inventory pressure. Alumina is expected to face downward pressure and seek new support levels [7]. Industry News - On January 14th, the Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation (GIADEC) and its partner Metalloïd Resources Investment Company signed a $60 million medium - term financing agreement in Abu Dhabi to accelerate the development of the Nyinahin bauxite project in the Ashanti region. According to Aladdin (ALD), the first shipment of 178,000 wet tons of bauxite from the Guinean mining company Rouge Mining has been successfully shipped, with the ore quality reaching around 45/1.5. This shipment marks the full - chain connection of the mining company from mining, port collection, terminal loading, barge transportation, maritime logistics to the subsequent sales network, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual export target [8]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventories, and alumina cost - profit [10][11][13][15][18][20][23].