原油：短期偏弱，谨防地缘风险反复

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of crude oil is weak, and investors should beware of the recurrence of geopolitical risks [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively weak outlook [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 02 contract rose $0.25 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of + 0.42%, at $59.44 per barrel; ICE Brent futures 03 contract rose $0.37 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of + 0.58%, at $64.13 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed up $6.50, a gain of 1.48%, at 446.0 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The import arbitrage windows for various crude oil varieties such as Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, etc. are closed due to factors like sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and high freight costs [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The cross - Atlantic arbitrage space for Forties is limited, while Saudi's Arab Extra Light and Algeria's Saharan Blend have arbitrage opportunities in the US East [5] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The inflow of US light crude oil is economical, and the demand for US shale oil is strong. The arbitrage windows of some crude oil varieties are open, while the demand for high - sulfur crude oil is weak [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Crude oil varieties such as Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, etc. have no competitiveness in the Mediterranean market, with closed arbitrage windows due to supply surplus and high freight costs [7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most Middle Eastern, African, and North American crude oil varieties face challenges in the Asian market, with closed arbitrage windows. However, Ecuador's Napo has an open arbitrage window [8] Key Market News - European eight - nation joint statement: Trump's threat to impose tariffs may damage trans - Atlantic relations [10] - US Treasury Secretary: Trump is committed to ensuring the independence of the Federal Reserve and has four good candidates [10] - US Treasury Secretary: Greenland is crucial for US national security [10] - German military personnel secretly left Greenland, and Berlin has not provided an explanation [10] - French President Macron may request the EU to activate anti - coercion tools in response to US tariff threats [10]