国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore: High valuation, exercise caution when chasing long positions [2][4] - Rebar: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][6] - Hot-rolled coil: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Raw material costs are loosening, with wide fluctuations [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Demand is slightly tightening, with wide fluctuations [2][11] - Coke: Disturbed by downstream accidents, oscillate at high levels [2][15] - Coking coal: Oscillate at high levels [2][15] - Steam coal: Supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, short-term prices will adjust within a narrow range [2][19] - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of the futures contract I2605 was 812.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton or -0.12%. The positions decreased by 3,540 hands. Among spot prices, the price of PB ore (61.5%) dropped by 1.0 yuan/ton to 819.0 yuan/ton. The basis for I2605 against Super Special decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton to 93.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 15, the central bank decided to cut the rediscount rate by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19 [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,163 yuan/ton and 3,315 yuan/ton respectively, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%) and 11 yuan/ton (0.33%). The positions of RB2605 and HC2605 increased by 70,217 hands and 66,309 hands respectively. Among spot prices, the price of rebar in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton, and the price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [6]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.62 tons. Total inventory of rebar decreased by 0.04 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.8 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 6.91 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 14.44 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 5.55 tons, and the total increased by 27.5 tons. In December 2025, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons or 4.2%. The average price was 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton or 11.0%. From January to December, the cumulative import of steel was 6.059 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 756,000 tons or 11.1% [6][8]. - Trend Intensity: Rebar and hot-rolled coil both have a trend intensity of 0 [6][8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 were 5,570 yuan/ton and 5,566 yuan/ton respectively, down 40 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 were 5,828 yuan/ton and 5,866 yuan/ton respectively, down 42 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton. Among spot prices, the price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 5,320 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese ore Mn44 decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton to 43.3 yuan/ton [11]. - Macro and Industry News: As of January 16, the inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 3.1465 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 31,000 tons; the inventory in Qinzhou Port was 1.0449 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 22,000 tons; the total inventory of manganese ore was 4.2014 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 13,000 tons. A large steel group in Hebei increased its procurement of silicomanganese in January by 2,300 tons compared to December 2025, with the final price set at 5,920 yuan/ton, a 150 yuan/ton increase from December 2025 [12][14]. - Trend Intensity: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese both have a trend intensity of 0 [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Tracking: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 were 1,171 yuan/ton and 1,717 yuan/ton respectively, down 16.5 yuan/ton (-1.4%) and 28 yuan/ton (-1.6%). Among spot prices, the price of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged at 1,620 yuan/ton, and the price of Hebei quasi - dry quenched coke remained unchanged at 1,525 yuan/ton [15]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 16, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that the price of CCI Shanxi low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. Due to heavy rainfall and floods in Australia, some coal mines issued force majeure notices, and the supply of Australian coking coal tightened, with the price of Goonyella coal rising by 10 US dollars to FOB 231 US dollars [15]. - Trend Intensity: Coke and coking coal both have a trend intensity of 0 [18] Steam Coal - Fundamental Tracking: No specific fundamental data provided in the text. - Macro and Industry News: In December 2025, China imported 58.597 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 11.94% and a month-on-month increase of 33.01%. The PPI in December 2025 had a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, with the decline narrowing, and a month-on-month increase of 0.20%, with the increase expanding. The CPI had a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with the increase expanding, and a month-on-month increase of 0.20%, turning positive. There were rumors about the withdrawal arrangement of coal production capacity for power coal supply guarantee [19]. - Trend Intensity: No relevant content provided. Logs - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The trading volume decreased by 0.4%, and the positions increased by 0.3%. Among spot prices, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market remained unchanged at 740 yuan/cubic meter [21]. - Macro and Industry News: China's RatingDog composite PMI in December 2025 was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [23]