钢材：需求存在支撑，钢价依然震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, but prices may fluctuate due to market sentiment. It is recommended to continue monitoring the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - For trading strategies, it is suggested that the single - side position maintain a volatile trend, for arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio between hot - rolled coil and coking coal, and for options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the output of small - sample rebar decreased by 0.74 million tons to 190.30 million tons, while the output of small - sample hot - rolled coil increased by 2.85 million tons to 308.36 million tons. The average daily molten iron output of 247 blast furnaces decreased by 1.49 million tons to 228.01 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 1.2 percentage points to 36%. With the increase in scrap steel prices, the cost of electric arc furnaces has continuously increased, leading to a decline in profits. Although molten iron production decreased this week, the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces increased, and scrap steel consumption was 51.29 million tons per day. It is expected that there may be further production cuts in the future. Long - process steel mills maintained profitability, and molten iron production continued to increase this week [4]. - Demand: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar increased by 14.44 million tons to 190.34 million tons, and that for small - sample hot - rolled coil increased by 5.55 million tons to 314.16 million tons. With the temperature rising and the improvement of downstream funds, the demand for hot - rolled coil was good due to pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry, and the export situation in January remained strong. From January to November, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment continued to decline month - on - month, and the increment of domestic project investment was insufficient. In November, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion area narrowed but still maintained a negative growth of about 20 - 30%, indicating weak real - estate data and insufficient willingness of residents to buy houses. In December, the official manufacturing PMI and S&P Global manufacturing PMI were both 50.1%, with new orders, exports, and production data strengthening. In November, China's automobile production increased by 12.7% year - on - year, and exports increased by 49.17% year - on - year. In December, the production schedule of three major white - goods decreased by 14.1% year - on - year, but the decline narrowed, and overseas exports still had rigid support. The US manufacturing PMI declined in November, and the initial jobless claims in the US were at a relatively low level, suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in January and putting pressure on gold prices. The eurozone manufacturing PMI further declined in December [4]. - Inventory: For rebar, the factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons, the social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 5.80 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 million tons [4]. - Outlook: The output of five major steel products increased slightly this week. Affected by steel mill maintenance, molten iron production declined, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The total steel inventory decreased. The social inventory of rebar accumulated while the factory inventory decreased, indicating that steel mills increased production cuts, but social demand further declined. The hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline, and with the resumption of production, the factory inventory decreased more slowly than the social inventory. The funds of downstream construction sites improved this week. Near the end of the year, the payment collection situation of housing construction projects was slightly better than that of non - housing construction projects, but infrastructure projects were worse than last year. The warming weather led to the recovery of rebar apparent demand. Before the Spring Festival, the manufacturing industry had inventory replenishment demand, and the steel export situation in January was still strong, supporting the demand for hot - rolled coil. The production drive of coal mines was insufficient before the Spring Festival, the inventory of raw - material coal mines decreased, the structural shortage of PB powder had not been resolved, and the first quarter was also the traditional off - season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills had a rigid demand for inventory replenishment, and costs were supported. The continuous resumption of molten iron production also limited the further rise of steel prices [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3290 yuan (unchanged), and in Beijing, it was 3180 yuan (+20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3310 yuan (+40 yuan), and that of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3200 yuan (+10 yuan) [13]. - Profit Situation: The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric arc furnace was - 100.36 yuan (- 70.5 yuan), and the valley - rate electricity profit was 65 yuan (- 71 yuan) [31]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - As of the week of January 9, the initial jobless claims in the US reached 198,000, lower than the expected 215,000 and the previous value of 207,000. The unemployment data was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [33]. - On January 15, the People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30% and cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [33]. - In December 2025, China's steel exports were 1.1301 billion tons, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 11.9019 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China's steel imports were 51.7 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [33]. - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 automobiles. From January to December, the cumulative automobile exports were 8.324 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.0%. In December 2025, China exported 370.11 million household appliances. From January to December, the cumulative household appliance exports were 4.452947 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. In December 2025, China exported 536 ships. From January to December, the cumulative ship exports were 6,690, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% [33]. - In December, the new social financing was 220.75 billion yuan, the previous value was 248.88 billion yuan, and the year - on - year decrease was 22.64%. Both year - on - year and month - on - month decreased. The new RMB loans were 91 billion yuan, and the previous value was 39 billion yuan. The household loans were - 9.16 billion yuan, and the corporate loans were 107 billion yuan. Government bonds and corporate bond financing provided strong support. The short - term financing demand of enterprises continued to recover, but the medium - and long - term investment demand was insufficient. The consumer and housing credit willingness of residents still needed to be boosted [38]. - From January to November 2025, China's fixed - asset investment completion amount was - 2.60% year - on - year, the previous value was - 1.7%, and the growth rate continued to decline rapidly month - on - month. Among them, the cumulative investment in real - estate development was - 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative investment in manufacturing was + 1.9%, the cumulative investment in infrastructure construction was + 0.13% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of the three types of investment continued to shrink significantly month - on - month. The real - estate sector lacked financial support and remained a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds slowed down compared with the same period last year, which affected infrastructure investment to some extent. Corporate loans were low, and the investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry continued to shrink due to insufficient industrial prosperity [38]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons (- 1.49 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 36% (+ 1.2 percentage points). The output of small - sample rebar was 1.903 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74 million tons, and the output of small - sample hot - rolled coil was 3.0836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85 million tons [57][61]. - Demand: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 1.9034 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 62.8% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month increase of 14.44 million tons, and the apparent demand for small - sample hot - rolled coil was 3.1416 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.77% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month increase of 5.55 million tons [64]. - Inventory: For rebar, the factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons, the social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 5.80 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 million tons [4].