Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the US inflation data in November met expectations, stabilizing market expectations for the Fed in 2026. Trump postponed new tariffs on key mineral imports, and NVIDIA significantly reduced copper usage in data centers, suppressing precious metal and copper prices and cooling the bullish sentiment in the metal sector. Domestically and in Indonesia, newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects continued to ramp up production. The consumption - side saw a slight increase in the开工 rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils, while other sectors remained relatively weak. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 736,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory rose by 36,500 tons to 206,000 tons compared to before the holiday. Overall, the bullish sentiment in the metal market subsided, SHFE aluminum positions declined slightly, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the fundamentals and continuous inventory accumulation, putting upward pressure on aluminum prices, leading to high - level volatile adjustments, which are expected to be limited in the medium - to - long - term due to supply constraints [3][8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, last week, the aluminum alloy开工 rate remained stable at 58%. Repeated environmental protection policies and high costs hindered enterprises' resumption of production, keeping the开工 rate low. On the consumption side, downstream customers still had a fear of high prices, but due to continuously high aluminum prices, they were forced to replenish stocks, resulting in a slight increase in recent inquiries. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 110 tons to 70,000 tons. In summary, the cost support for cast aluminum has slightly weakened, and there is increased pressure for price adjustment in the off - season of demand. However, the uncertainty of regional tax policies and environmental protection restrictions form a rigid constraint on the supply side, and macro - favorable factors provide support, so the adjustment range is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price decreased from 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, to 3,128.5 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a drop of 20.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 24,420 dollars/ton to 24,020 dollars/ton, a decline of 400 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.8 to 7.7, a decrease of 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 9,825 tons to 488,000 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 49,838 tons to 140,750 tons. The spot average price increased by 442 yuan/ton to 24,302 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 24,302 yuan/ton, up 442 yuan/ton from last week; the South China Storage spot weekly average price was 24,334 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of the macro - environment, the US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The PPI and core PPI in November increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Energy cost increase was the main driver of the PPI rise. The US retail sales in November 2025 increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth since July last year. The market expected a 95% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in January 2026. China's foreign trade imports and exports in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and announced five other measures related to structural monetary policy tools [6][7]. - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's开工 rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. The开工 rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased slightly, mainly driven by pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment and the demand for can materials and packaging foils. Currently, the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment cycle has started, providing some support for the开工 rate of each sector, but high aluminum prices have restricted the scale of inventory replenishment, and with insufficient new orders, the increase is expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, on January 15, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons compared to before the holiday [7]. - For cast aluminum, the Friday SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy was 23,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 147 yuan/ton to 2,614 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum decreased by 93 yuan/ton to 3,743 yuan/ton. Last week, the开工 rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained flat at 58%. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 110 tons to 70,000 tons [7]. 3. Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, in the electrolytic aluminum sector, the market sentiment is bearish, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulating, leading to high - level volatile adjustments with limited medium - to - long - term adjustment. In the cast aluminum sector, there is increased pressure for price adjustment, but the adjustment range is expected to be limited due to supply - side constraints and macro - favorable factors [8]. 4. Industry News - In December 2025, China exported 545,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In the US physical aluminum market, as the benchmark price rises, the tariff part of the "premium" paid by buyers has increased from about 1,300 dollars per ton in June to 1,550 dollars per ton. China's automobile production and sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 34 million vehicles, setting a new record, and new energy vehicles have become the dominant force in the market, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [10][11]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, aluminum premiums, inventory seasonal changes, etc., which visually display the market data and trends of aluminum [13][14][16][18][20][22][24][27][30].
铝周报：多头氛围收敛，铝价震荡调整-20260119
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2026-01-19 01:52