贵金属强势难消，短期波动加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels. Gold and silver prices reached new highs during the week. After CME changed the margin of precious metal futures contracts from fixed to proportion - floating on the 14th, COMEX silver prices continued to rise strongly, hitting a record high of $93.7 per ounce. Gold and platinum prices fluctuated, and palladium prices declined slightly due to the temporary elimination of tariff risks [2][5]. - On January 15, the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum for the time being. Trump's criminal investigation against Fed Chairman Powell led to political backlash, and Kevin Warsh became the top candidate for the next Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions persisted, such as the US threatening to impose tariffs to seize Greenland and the tense situation in Iran [2][6]. - Recent US employment and inflation data were better than expected, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27 - 28 meeting and cut rates at least twice by 25 basis points this year. With the tariff policy becoming clearer, metals not subject to high - tariff may flow out of the US market, but the market still anticipates long - term supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and strategic hoarding, so the popularity of precious metals is expected to remain high, with high price volatility risks [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1032.32 | 25.84 | 2.57 | 87298 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 1031.09 | 28.17 | 2.81 | 40854 | 188966 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4601.10 | 82.70 | 1.83 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 22483 | 3193 | 16.55 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 22641 | 3882 | 20.69 | 538580 | 3156550 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 89.95 | 10.16 | 12.73 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 610.05 | 10.25 | 1.71 | 24678 | 12562 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 602.46 | 9.64 | 1.63 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2342.90 | 9.64 | 2.86 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 469.35 | 9.64 | - 5.95 | 12825 | 12562 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1846.50 | 9.64 | - 1.47 | | | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Price trends: Precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels last week. Gold and silver hit new highs, while palladium declined slightly due to tariff risk elimination [2][5]. - Policy: The Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum after a national security review, and will seek bilateral negotiations and consider setting a price floor [5]. - Political situation: Trump's criminal investigation against Powell led to criticism from former US economic and financial officials. Kevin Warsh became the most likely candidate for the next Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions included the US threatening to impose tariffs on 8 European countries for Greenland and the tense situation in Iran [2][6]. - Economic data: US employment and inflation data were better than expected, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January and cut rates at least twice this year [2][6][8]. - Future outlook: With the tariff policy becoming clearer, metals not subject to high - tariff may flow out of the US market, but the market still anticipates long - term supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and strategic hoarding. The popularity of precious metals is expected to remain high, but high price volatility risks need to be noted. This week, attention should be paid to the initial value of the US Q4 GDP and the November PCE data [2][8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US core inflation slowed down. In December, the core CPI growth rate was lower than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the same as the lowest level in the past five years, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations [8]. - In November last year, the US PPI and core PPI both increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Rising energy costs were the main driver of PPI growth [8]. - In November last year, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth rate since July last year. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, better than the market expectation of 0.4%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption [8]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four - week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two - year low [9]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that in 8 of the 12 Fed districts, overall economic activity increased slightly to moderately, 3 reported no change, and 1 reported a slight decline. Compared with the previous three reporting cycles, the situation improved. Most banks reported a slight to moderate increase in consumer spending during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season [9]. - On January 12, CME announced that it would change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures from a fixed - dollar amount to a certain percentage of the contract's nominal value. Under the new framework, the gold margin will be set at 5%, and the silver margin will rise to 9%. Platinum and palladium will also use a similar percentage calculation. The adjustment took effect after the close on January 13 [9]. - The governor of the Polish central bank said that the bank plans to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons by the end of the year [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - Precious metal ETF holdings: The total gold ETF holdings on January 16, 2026, were 1085.67 tons, an increase of 21.11 tons compared with the previous week, 33.13 tons compared with the previous month, and 206.55 tons compared with the previous year. The iShare silver holdings on January 16, 2026, were 16073.06 tons, a decrease of 235.42 tons compared with the previous week, an increase of 54.77 tons compared with the previous month, and an increase of 1662.34 tons compared with the previous year [12]. - Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and other data of precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as their relationships with the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and other factors [13][20][34].