市场情绪反复切换，锌价高位宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The market has digested the impact of Trump's tariff increase on 8 European countries, and the risk - aversion sentiment has slightly recovered. Consumption feedback is negative, with the start - up of primary enterprises under pressure and some planning to have early holidays. The spot premium has declined, while refineries are resuming production and zinc ingot exports are closed, leading to an increase in supply and an expected rise in inventory. However, in the short term, the market is dominated by funds, and the market sentiment switches rapidly, amplifying the zinc price fluctuations. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,970 yuan/ton to 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 780 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3149 dollars/ton to 3207.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 58.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.61 to 7.72. The SHFE inventory increased by 2459 tons to 76311 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 106,525 tons, and the social inventory decreased slightly from 11.85 to 11.84 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 100 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc, ZN2603, first rose and then fell last week, closing at 24750 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 3.25%. LME zinc reached a new high of 3355 dollars/ton and then adjusted, closing at 3209 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 1.91%. In the spot market, the supply increased, downstream purchases weakened, the spot premium continued to decline, and the trading was mainly between traders. As of January 16th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 2459 tons, and the social inventory was 11.84 million tons [5][6]. Macro - economic Situation - In the US, the November retail sales monthly rate reached a new high since July, the December core inflation was lower than expected, the employment market was strong, and the 1 - month interest rate cut probability remained low. Trump's plan to impose a 10% tariff on 8 European countries dragged down market risk appetite. In China, the new social financing in December was better than expected, the central bank signaled interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the export and import in December increased year - on - year [7][8][9]. Industry News - On January 16th, 2026, the average domestic and foreign zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat, and the import ore processing fee decreased by 4.25 dollars/ton. Starting from April 14th, 2026, LME will not accept certain brand warehouse receipts for registration. A Canadian mining company's mine in Peru is progressing smoothly in resuming production, aiming for commercial production in the third quarter of 2026. Central Asia Metals PLC released its 2025 operation update and set its 2026 production targets [11][12].