需求淡季压制，期价震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank has launched a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. This includes measures such as lowering the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points, increasing the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan, setting up a 1 - trillion - yuan relending quota for private enterprises, expanding the support scope of carbon emission reduction tools, and reducing the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%. The central bank also indicates that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1][4][10]. - Last week's industrial data was average. Due to the restoration of steel mill profits, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly month - on - month, and the apparent demand rebounded. However, due to the off - season suppression, the weak pattern before the Spring Festival remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm of steel products. With the recent national cooling, demand has further declined, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3163 | 19 | 0.60 | 5178836 | 2320984 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3315 | 21 | 0.64 | 2077198 | 1448345 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 812.0 | - 2.5 | - 0.31 | 1331049 | 652402 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1171.0 | - 24.5 | - 2.05 | 6677833 | 625637 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1717.0 | - 31.0 | - 1.77 | 116309 | 38799 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rose, with limited intra - week drivers and disorderly price fluctuations. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2970 (- 10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3300 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3300 (+ 30) yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, the central bank launched a "combination punch" for economic support, and the Ministry of Finance and two other departments announced a personal income tax refund policy for homebuyers from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [4]. - In the industrial aspect, last week, rebar production was 1.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons; apparent demand was 1.9 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 3.08 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory situation and other data are as described in the report [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, including optimizing loan discount policies [6][7]. - The National Commerce Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, the national commerce system should focus on eight aspects of work, including optimizing the implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy [10]. - The Ministry of Finance and two other departments announced a personal income tax refund policy for homebuyers from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [10]. - The central bank launched a "combination punch" for economic support [10]. - The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a yellow cold wave warning, indicating significant temperature drops in certain regions from January 19 to 21 [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes various charts such as the trend of rebar futures and spreads, hot - rolled coil futures and spreads, rebar basis, hot - rolled coil basis, rebar and hot - rolled coil spot price differentials, steel mill profit trends, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [8][11][13] etc.