关税预期缓和，铜价高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fell from their highs. The main reasons were that the Trump administration might have decided not to impose tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and key mineral resources, NVIDIA's financial report suggested that the previous estimate of copper usage in AI data centers might be overestimated, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and overseas funds taking profits at high levels, which put short - term pressure on the metal market. However, in the medium term, the long - bull logic of the precious metal market provides a solid foundation for the valuation increase of copper prices [2][7]. - In the overall situation, against the backdrop of tariff easing and the market gradually pricing in two expected interest rate cuts this year, some overseas funds are taking profits from long positions. The NVIDIA report's potential overestimation of AI data - center copper usage and the rebound of the US dollar index restrict the upward movement of metals. Fundamentally, overseas mine disruptions continue, domestic refined copper supply is narrowing marginally, traditional industries' consumption drag is obvious, and domestic inventories are continuously increasing. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level range in the short term [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Price Changes: From January 9th to January 16th, LME copper decreased from $12,965.50/ton to $12,808.50/ton, a decline of $157.00/ton or - 1.21%; COMEX copper dropped from 589.05 cents/pound to 584.85 cents/pound, a decrease of 4.2 cents/pound or - 0.71%; SHFE copper fell from 101,410 yuan/ton to 100,770 yuan/ton, a decline of 640 yuan/ton or - 0.63%; international copper decreased from 90,150 yuan/ton to 89,650 yuan/ton, a decline of 500 yuan/ton or - 0.55%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.82 to 7.87, and the LME spot premium increased by 46.69% from $41.94/ton to $61.52/ton, while the Shanghai spot premium decreased from - 45 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory Changes: As of January 16th, the total global visible inventory exceeded one million tons, reaching 1,005,786 tons, an increase of 7.10% compared to January 9th. LME inventory increased by 4,600 tons to 143,575 tons (a 3.31% increase), COMEX inventory rose by 24,915 short tons to 542,914 short tons (a 4.81% increase), SHFE inventory increased by 32,972 tons to 213,497 tons (an 18.26% increase), and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 4,200 tons to 105,800 tons (a 4.13% increase) [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economy has expanded moderately recently, inflation pressure has eased, and employment is generally stable. After the tariffs were implemented, enterprises' outlook on future economic activities has turned optimistic. The US consumer data is positive, and the inflation data has increased the probability of an interest - rate cut in April to over 40%. Trump's actions have increased market risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the copper - price center. In China, the State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, mainly for the construction of a new power system and related industrial - chain upgrades [8]. - Supply - demand aspect: The global mine - end supply growth rate in 2026 will be less than 1.5% due to mine disruptions. Domestic refined - copper supply is expected to decline further. The demand from the power grid construction is large but the progress is slow, white - goods consumption is declining, and real - estate completion is lackluster. However, new industries such as new - energy vehicles, wind and solar power, and AI data centers are providing new consumption increments [9]. 3.3 Industry News - First Quantum Minerals welcomes Panama's plan to allow the Cobre Panama copper mine to process inventory ore. The government plans to make a formal decision on the mine's future development by June this year [11]. - Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Congo achieved its 2025 production target. It delivered 388,838 tons of copper concentrate, and the company reaffirmed its 2026 copper - production forecast of 380,000 - 420,000 tons [12]. - On January 15th, Luoyang Molybdenum released its 2025 performance forecast. Its annual net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 20 billion and 20.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 47.80% - 53.71%. The company's copper production in 2025 reached 741,149 tons [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Exchange and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled - warrant ratio, COMEX inventory and cancelled - warrant ratio, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, Shanghai Non - ferrous copper spot premium, LME copper premium, SHFE copper inter - month spread, spot premium and Yangshan copper premium, copper domestic - foreign price ratio, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, COMEX copper non - commercial net - long position ratio, and LME copper investment - fund net - position change [15][19][22][23][27][29][31][35][37][41]