铁矿周报：港库持续增加，铁矿震荡承压-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply is generally loose with the arrival of the first shipment of Simandou iron ore in China; overseas shipments declined last week, but recent concentrated arrivals of iron ore have led to a continuous increase in port inventories. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production declined, iron ore daily consumption decreased, and in - plant inventories increased. Overall, supply is stronger than demand, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mills' restocking before the Spring Festival [1][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3163 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.60% with a total trading volume of 5178836 lots and a total open interest of 2320984 lots - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.64% with a total trading volume of 2077198 lots and a total open interest of 1448345 lots - DCE iron ore closed at 812.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or - 0.31% with a total trading volume of 1331049 lots and a total open interest of 652402 lots - DCE coking coal closed at 1171.0 yuan/ton, down 24.5 yuan or - 2.05% with a total trading volume of 6677833 lots and a total open interest of 625637 lots - DCE coke closed at 1717.0 yuan/ton, down 31.0 yuan or - 1.77% with a total trading volume of 116309 lots and a total open interest of 38799 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - Demand side: Last week, hot metal production declined, iron ore daily consumption decreased, and in - plant inventories increased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 228.01 tons, a decrease of 1.49 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.53 tons from the same period last year - Supply side: Overseas shipments declined last week, but recent concentrated arrivals of iron ore have led to a continuous increase in port inventories. On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived at China Baowu's Majishan Port. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 172.887 million tons, an increase of 2.4426 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 194,000 tons [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, including optimizing loan discount policies for service - sector business entities and personal consumption loans, implementing loan discount policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, establishing a special guarantee plan for private investment, and optimizing the fiscal discount policy for equipment renewal loans - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced that from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a housing in the market within one year after the sale of their current housing will be eligible for a tax refund on the individual income tax paid for the sale of their current housing - The central bank launched a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the re - loan and re - discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, merging the use of re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses with re - discount quotas, increasing the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, setting up a 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises in the total quota, expanding the support scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30%. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year - According to China Baowu, the first shipment of Simandou iron ore arrived at China Baowu's Majishan Port. On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore successfully arrived at a Chinese port [10] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the profitability rate of steel mills across the country, daily average pig iron production, global iron ore shipments, port inventories, and domestic mine iron ore production from 2022 to 2026 [8][11][26]