格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the U.S. biofuel policy has boosted global vegetable oil prices, but the operation difficulty has increased and no trend direction has formed yet. In the long - term, a bullish mindset of buying on dips is appropriate for soybean and palm oils, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [1][2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the overall weak pattern of Zhengzhou meal has not changed. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contract [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On January 16, the U.S. biofuel policy offset the negative impact of Indonesia canceling B50, and the vegetable oil sector strengthened again. Rapeseed oil had the largest increase. For example, the closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2605 was 9063 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.66% and a daily increase in positions of 10,800 lots [1]. Important Information - On January 16, NYMEX crude oil futures rose, but in the short - term, the trend is still dominated by geopolitical risks, and in the long - term, weak fundamentals will limit the upside space [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the U.S. EPA is considering setting the biodiesel usage in 2026 between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9% [1]. - From January 1 - 10 in Malaysia, palm oil exports increased by 29.2% compared with the same period in December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025 [1][2]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 4.67% week - on - week, with different changes in the inventory of each oil type [2]. Market Logic - In the external market, the easing of the U.S. - Iran situation pressured international crude oil, but the U.S. biofuel quota approval boosted U.S. soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil was affected by multiple factors and finally recovered its decline [2]. - In the domestic market, for soybean oil, there are both positive and negative news, and the Spring Festival stocking is ongoing; for palm oil, the import profit has recovered and the inventory is increasing; for rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market but then exited due to the approaching of the bottom support [2]. Trading Strategy - For one - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oils, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference should be exited [2]. Two - Meal Sector (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On January 16, the "buy - oil sell - meal" strategy and the commodity market cooled down, and the two - meal prices oscillated downward. For example, the closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2605 was 2727 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.47% and a daily increase in positions of 4054 lots [2][3]. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully successful, and most of them had a premium [3]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, and there were corresponding changes in other aspects such as crushing volume and ending inventory [3]. - StoneX predicted that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production might reach 178.9 million tons [3]. - As of January 9, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [3]. - As of December 30, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth situation was good [3]. - ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 would be 3.73 million tons, a significant increase compared with the same period last year [3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, and the soybean meal inventory decreased [3]. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully successful, with specific details such as base price, transaction price, and delivery date [3]. Market Logic - In the external market, the U.S. new - year biofuel use plan boosted U.S. soybeans. In the domestic market, multiple factors pressured the futures market, but the spot market was active, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [4]. Trading Strategy - For the two - meal 05 contract, maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset for medium - term trading and conduct intraday trading. Gradually arrange short positions for the 09 contract. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4]. - For arbitrage, no strategy is provided currently [4].