宝城期货甲醇早报-20260119

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to show an overall trend of being strong in the short - term and mid - term, with a short - term (within a week) and mid - term (two weeks to a month) outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of being strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][5]. - The core logic is that pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" is the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, a major import source, is facing serious supply disruptions. Meanwhile, the reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices and a stronger basis, which has boosted the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. As the geopolitical risk has weakened, the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Monday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Methanol Price and Market Outlook - For methanol 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is strong, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1]. - The pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" is the main support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran is disrupted, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing, leading to price recovery and a stronger basis, which affects the futures market [5]. - After the geopolitical risk weakens, the domestic methanol futures showed an oscillating trend on the night of last Friday with a slight decline, and are expected to maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Monday [5].