格林期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillating Bullish" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term price of pure benzene will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5480 - 5750 yuan/ton. The follow - up focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market. It is recommended to choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose 63 yuan to 5694 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5530 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5430 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan month - on - month). The number of long positions increased by 809 to 21,400 hands, and the number of short positions decreased by 381 to 25,900 hands [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89%; compared with the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrival was about 36,000 tons and the pickup was about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the phenol operating rate was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the caprolactam operating rate was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the aniline operating rate was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the adipic acid operating rate was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam factories started self - disciplined production cuts, and there was an expected decrease in pure benzene demand in December and January [2] - Import Data: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import amount was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [2] - Oil Price: Due to the instability of the geopolitical situation and some traders' bargain - hunting, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.25 US dollars to 59.44 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.37 US dollars to 64.13 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 12.7 to 439.7 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 446.2 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The geopolitical tension in the Middle East has not been completely eliminated, and crude oil prices rose on Friday. The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate last week, while the operating rate of downstream products on the demand side increased [2] Trading Strategy - Choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [2]