期指：维持震荡判断

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report maintains a judgment of range - bound movement for stock index futures [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - Closing Prices and Fluctuations: On January 16, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures' current - month contracts showed mixed trends. IF fell 0.17%, IH fell 0.64%, IC rose 0.48%, and IM rose 0.31%. The closing price of CSI 300 was 4731.9, down 0.41%; the closing price of SSE 50 was 3079.8, down 0.83%; the closing price of CSI 500 was 8232.7, up 0.11%; the closing price of CSI 1000 was 8232.7, down 0.10% [1] - Transaction Volume and Open Interest: On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 8710 lots, IH increased by 6213 lots, IC decreased by 7691 lots, and IM decreased by 5426 lots. In terms of open interest, the total open interest of IF decreased by 11232 lots, IH increased by 60 lots, IC decreased by 12031 lots, and IM decreased by 16189 lots [1][2] - Basis: The basis of different contracts of various stock index futures varied. For example, the basis of IF2601 was 5.13, and that of IF2602 was - 6.07 [1] - Positions of the Top 20 Members: The changes in the long and short positions of the top 20 members of different contracts of various stock index futures were different. For example, for IF2601, the long positions decreased by 14893, and the short positions decreased by 12296 [5] 2. Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3. Important Drivers - Policy - related: The CSRC held the 2026 system work conference, emphasizing stability, starting the in - depth reform of the ChiNext, promoting the implementation of the STAR Market reform, and promoting the optimization plan for qualified overseas investors. The CSRC also solicited public opinions on the "Derivatives Transaction Supervision and Management Measures (Trial)". The State Council held an executive meeting to discuss consumption promotion, debt settlement, and other matters [7][8] - Market Performance: A - shares opened higher and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index barely holding the 4100 - point mark. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related sub - indices also showed certain fluctuations. The power grid equipment, power, and chip sectors were strong, while the AI application theme was weak [7]