格林期货早盘提示：钢材-20260119

Group 1 - The investment rating of the steel industry in the report is "volatile" [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that after the previous upward movement, rebar has entered a consolidation phase again. The further loosening of monetary policy is beneficial to commodities. The steel mill accident in Baotou over the weekend may trigger expectations of safety inspections and production suspensions in the steel industry, which is positive for the market. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of steel have both declined, with a slight decline in rebar production and inventory, an increase in hot-rolled coil production, and a slight decline in inventory. The apparent demand has increased month-on-month. Project demand remains stable, overall market transactions are okay, merchants have a good attitude, and are relatively optimistic about the future market. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Due to the impact of the accident, steel prices may strengthen in the short term, and short - buying can be attempted, but the sustainability is expected to be weak [1] Group 3 Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher on Friday and lower in the night session [1] Important Information - Six departments issued the Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Spent Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles [1] - In December 2025, 23,095 excavators of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. Among them, domestic sales were 10,331 units, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%; exports were 12,764 units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17%. Among them, domestic sales were 118,518 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.9%; exports were 116,739 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.1% [1] - Beijing will start 160 major projects in the first quarter, with a total investment of about 518.8 billion yuan [1] - In 2025, China's automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 2.615 million, a year - on - year doubling, becoming the core engine driving growth [1] - Since January 19, the rediscount rate and relending rate have been lowered by 0.25 percentage points [1] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from the previous week [1] Market Logic - After the previous upward movement, rebar has entered a consolidation phase again. The further loosening of monetary policy is beneficial to commodities. The steel mill accident in Baotou over the weekend may trigger expectations of safety inspections and production suspensions in the steel industry, which is positive for the market. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of steel have both declined, with a slight decline in rebar production and inventory, an increase in hot-rolled coil production, and a slight decline in inventory. The apparent demand has increased month-on-month. Project demand remains stable, overall market transactions are okay, merchants have a good attitude, and are relatively optimistic about the future market. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the impact of the accident, steel prices may strengthen in the short term, and short - buying can be attempted, but the sustainability is expected to be weak. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3000, and the resistance level is 3200 [1]