格林期货早盘提示：铁矿-20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is bullish [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The iron ore market had a decline on Friday and in the night session. The monetary policy is further relaxed, which is beneficial to commodities. The steel - mill accident in Baotou over the weekend may trigger expectations of safety inspections and production halts in the steel industry, which is positive for the market. However, from an industrial perspective, the supply of iron ore has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has risen. The steel - mill accident may drive the iron ore price to strengthen in the short - term, but the sustainability is weak [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The iron ore closed down on Friday and in the night session [1] 2. Important News - Six departments issued the Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Spent Power Batteries of New - energy Vehicles [1] - In December 2025, 23,095 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. Domestic sales were 10,331 units, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, and exports were 12,764 units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17% [1] - Beijing will start 160 major projects in the first quarter with a total investment of about 518.8 billion yuan [1] - In 2025, China's automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. New - energy vehicle exports were 2.615 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore of domestic steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons [1] - Last week, the daily average coke output of 230 independent coking enterprises in the country was 500,100 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the coke inventory was 406,100 tons, a decrease of 35,600 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 9.5483 million tons, an increase of 428,700 tons [1] 3. Market Logic - The monetary policy is further relaxed, which is beneficial to commodities. The steel - mill accident may trigger expectations of safety inspections and production halts in the steel industry, which is positive for the market. In terms of industry, the total arrival of iron ore has increased this period, and shipments have decreased seasonally. Domestic iron ore production has increased, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports has continued to accumulate. The daily average hot - metal output is 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35,300 tons. Overall, supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Affected by the steel - mill accident, the iron ore may strengthen in the short - term, but the sustainability is weak. It is recommended to try short - term long positions. The support level for the main contract is 800, and the resistance level is 844 [1]