宝城期货橡胶早报-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that both domestic Shanghai rubber futures and synthetic rubber futures may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Monday. The Shanghai rubber futures (RU2605) are expected to be weak in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, while the synthetic rubber futures (BR2603) also have a similar outlook [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Price Trend: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall reference: weak operation [1][5] - Core Logic: With Thailand and Cambodia's armistice, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. China's Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, but Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The downstream domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. As the upward trend of the energy and chemical sector weakens, the Shanghai rubber futures maintained a volatile and weak trend on the night of last Friday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Price Trend: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall reference: weak operation [1][7] - Core Logic: Affected by the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, resulting in some production facilities reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the volatile and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has increased. As the upward trend of the energy and chemical sector weakens, the synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on the night of last Friday [7].